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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 14, 2020 10:00:33 GMT
I decided to set up this thread because nobody else did.
Can Mayo do it - well IMO and indeed that of one Padraig Power, they have the worst chance ever and certainly of recent years, but it is Mayo we are talking about, could they dominate the mighty Dubs only to throw it away with silly stuff and which they have down to a very fine art, or will they finally do it?
Can't wait for the final comment on here next Saturday night when the long whistle blows.
Good luck to them, maybe my blessing of the Garda county will nudge them over the line.
They have no form much, Dubs have gotten stronger IMO but then again a few of question marks here too.
As a Rossie said to me lately - would they ever win the shagging thing and give our heads a rest from listening to the tale of woes.
I know we say this every year but this just might be their year and sure we'll enjoy this week anyway - and then forget it all at 5pm on Sat at the throw in when all the auld chat becomes irrelevant, and we are all proven wrong in every sentence uttered, such is life!
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Post by kerrybhoy06 on Dec 14, 2020 11:36:54 GMT
Dublin to win by 10 points or more is shorter odds than it is for Mayo to win. That says it all really.
Dublin by 6 or 7 in my eyes and they wont need to hit top gear for very long to win it
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Post by boherbee on Dec 14, 2020 12:56:06 GMT
Mayo aren’t good enough to beat Dublin, but then who is ?
On a side note , why not have the match on Sunday , 5 o’clock on a Saturday in Dublin ! , suits nobody.
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Post by kerrybhoy06 on Dec 14, 2020 13:49:27 GMT
Mayo aren’t good enough to beat Dublin, but then who is ? On a side note , why not have the match on Sunday , 5 o’clock on a Saturday in Dublin ! , suits nobody. Well nobody is the obvious answer. They’ve won 5 in a row and are goin for 6
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 14, 2020 14:57:50 GMT
Mayo aren’t good enough to beat Dublin, but then who is ? On a side note , why not have the match on Sunday , 5 o’clock on a Saturday in Dublin ! , suits nobody. You do realise there are no fans?
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Post by boherbee on Dec 14, 2020 17:05:46 GMT
Mayo aren’t good enough to beat Dublin, but then who is ? On a side note , why not have the match on Sunday , 5 o’clock on a Saturday in Dublin ! , suits nobody. You do realise there are no fans? I was thinking more of the Mayo players , probably suits the Dublin players, they can get out of bed around 12 o’clock and wander over to Croke Park at their ease.
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Post by onlykerry on Dec 15, 2020 9:49:55 GMT
So for the fifth time the AI football final will be played in the month of December - previous encounters happened over 100 years ago. 1909 Kerry beat Louth, 1913 Kerry beat Wexford, 1916 Wexford beat Mayo and 1917 Wexford beat Clare.
Curiously that was Wexfords 4 in a row campaign - they actually played in six successive finals losing the first 2 to Kerry before winning the next four. Their other win was in 1893 placing them joint sixth (with Cavan) in the all time roll of honour.
Wexford won their four in a row 1918 and have not been back in the final since - too much to hope for to think the current dominant shower will go the same way!!!
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 15, 2020 15:31:31 GMT
I wonder if political constituency carve ups bear any relevance to the inter-county issue?
I know it's a biteen off point but this place is so boring it is hardly a crime!
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 15, 2020 15:57:07 GMT
I haven't heard anyone suggest something as mad as Dublin being represented by clubs...
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 15, 2020 16:36:01 GMT
I haven't heard anyone suggest something as mad as Dublin being represented by clubs... Neither did anyone else!
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Post by misteallaigh abú on Dec 16, 2020 9:59:11 GMT
It’s very hard to see anything other than Dublin defying the handicap, once again. It would be fantastic to see a contest, however, I fear that may be asking for too much. The Dubs by 8 points plus.
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tpo
Senior Member
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Post by tpo on Dec 16, 2020 10:23:40 GMT
I think Mayo will win. they run at teams at pace which is very hard to defend against and have the added advantage of a high ball into Aidan O Shea every now and then
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 16, 2020 12:48:00 GMT
We know one thing and that is Mayo will play without fear.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 16, 2020 13:33:07 GMT
Darragh O'6 gives a good account in the IT, concluding in a way that it is how Dublin will win that he isn't sure of.
So here's another angle - Mayo have been beaten so many times in the concluding stages of the AI SFC that statistically they are bound to defy the odds on one occasion. Then again there's lies, damned lies and statistics.
Still 'tis 15 v 15 and DO'6 doesn't chew on chinks in the Dublin armoury, even potential chinks. It was Connolly who bailed 'em out the last time they were in trouble v Maigh Eo and he is no more so if there is a crisis Mayo might smell blood and go for the jugular. Farrell could also be susceptible to surprises and our Westerners will test him.
So either Maigh Eo get a super human adrenaline rush or 'tis 6 in a row for our beloved navy blue shorts - that's my tuppenny bit.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 16, 2020 13:43:40 GMT
That is not how probability works.
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Post by kerrybhoy06 on Dec 17, 2020 7:57:50 GMT
That is not how probability works. The old 'they are a due a win' argument! Also applies to the lotto, that hot girl thats out of your league and getting spotted by the Kerry selectors
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Post by onlykerry on Dec 17, 2020 9:27:41 GMT
I have absolutely no doubts about Dublin being a better team than Mayo - they are 10+ points a better team and should pick up their sixth title on the trot. For me the only doubt is do Dublin still have a hunger to do battle to win the title a sixth time - yes the new blood in the team is probably a pointer to answering this question with a yes. But the doubt still lingers and Caffrey's explanation of why he is not part of the squad this year lies at the heart of why Mayo have an outside chance. That plus the lack of any joy or emotion from Dublin when they won the semi final. If Mayo manage to make a dog fight of the game (and on past record they have that ability) and drag Dublin into a scrap where the will to win is vital they stand a chance (winter football will help). On footballing merit alone the game is Dublins but if Mayo can turn the game into a battle have Dublin the hunger to rise to the challenge. In many ways I don't care - just get finished with 2020 and let us start over in (hopefully) a better and more enjoyable 2021.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 17, 2020 15:00:46 GMT
It is exactly what probability theory is about and while it is good at suggesting what should happen, it doesn’t cope with a freak and is what I outlined. Have Maigh Eo a better chance than Cork had v us, Cavan v Donegal, Tipp v Cork? And all those freaks are largely unexplainable, and happened in a freak year. Add in Farrell and that they have never dealt with a crisis and you begin to think there is, well a possibility. I suppose I am trying to build our hopes up that it will be a game to look forward to.
If they played each other say on 10 consecutive Sundays, all the final scores would almost definitely be different, but would Maigh Eo win any - many?
Maigh Eo won’t win until they win and ah sure ‘twould light up the place to see it – the poor hoors have been through hell and there is a build up of that too that might have ‘em go mental and play out of their skins – as I said, it is 15 v 15 and yes, stranger things have happened.
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kerryexile
Fanatical Member
Whether you believe that you can, or that you can't, you are right anyway.
Posts: 1,117
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Post by kerryexile on Dec 17, 2020 15:28:45 GMT
Like most people I believe Dublin will win and I think like most people the reason is, to paraphrase the well known saying, they keep doing the same thing and you will get the same result. That is exactly what a team like Mayo, starting to rebuild doesn't want.
However is is sport and Dublin are only human (I think!). Mickey Graham, with a modest Cavan team caused a few wobbles but not enough to cause Dublin to lose their balance. Their defence forced Dublin to recycle a lot more than expected and in one mini highlight stole possession and played the ball out. Their midfield did very well with their own kickouts and even some of Dublin's. Their attack ran through Dublin's defence on a number of occasions. It could be the first draft of the blueprint.
If mayo can replicate that and with their better players it could be much tighter entering the last quarter. They must take points on the run from 30 metres out because Dublin have perfected the fullback line swarm. Mayo must crowd their own D because nearly all Dublin scores come from that area. In the semi final Cillian O'Connor appeared to miskick a free from about 45 metres causing it to drop short only for his brother to "ghost" into the small box and tip it to the net. I think it might have been more a rehearsal than a miskick. One way of outsmarting the swarm.
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Post by Ard Mhacha on Dec 17, 2020 16:10:29 GMT
6 in a row, and that elephant in the room grows even bigger. A Mayo win, and the “problem” remains, and nothing is addressed.
Hard to know what the best result would be, for the long term future of the All Ireland championship.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 17, 2020 16:25:04 GMT
It is exactly what probability theory is about. Sure, it is what probability is about; but not how it works. If your fairly flip a fair coin nine times and you get nine heads, the probability of another heads is still 50%. Now obviously there are way more things going on in a system as complex as Dublin vs Mayo, but bluntly applying the wrong-idea that a long run of heads makes a tails more likely to this system is not where it's at. Apologies for being pedantic about this (and I hope you can trust my bona fides to talk about this). There is a thing which says that if you flip 100 coins and you have 55 heads, that if you are about flip another 100 the expectation is that the total proportion of heads is closer to 50% than 55%... but that isn't about expecting tails to "catch up": you expect 50 heads out of the remaining 100 and so you're expecting 55+50=105 heads total --- 52.5% --- but the odds of a head in each throw is still 50%. In other words, if Dublin beat Mayo ten times out of ten when they are 90% favourites, and they play ten more times, we expect Mayo's winning percentage to increase to 5% --- not because they are due to defy the odds but precisely because our best guess is that they will follow the odds and win one game out of the ten... but in each of the ten new games they are still a 10% shot... there is no contradiction. You can get into other effects then by noting that the match results, even if identical odds, are probably not independent.
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Post by Mickmack on Dec 17, 2020 19:06:35 GMT
6 in a row, and that elephant in the room grows even bigger. A Mayo win, and the “problem” remains, and nothing is addressed. Hard to know what the best result would be, for the long term future of the All Ireland championship. the best result is a 30 point win for Dublin
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Post by john4 on Dec 17, 2020 19:22:24 GMT
If Mayo are to win this thing then they'll have to do something brave, something uniquely different to anything we've seen them do before, something completely off the wall different. I don't know what that could be but, maybe play keep ball between the backs for prolonged periods of time with a view to frustrating Dublin and creating a variable for which Dublin may not have factored in before the start of the match. If Mayo go out and play defensive they'll be beaten, if they go all out attacking they'll be caught up the field. If Mayo win this it'll be James Horan we'll be praising afterwards. Mayo can't afford to do the same thing again. It won't work.
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Post by Ard Mhacha on Dec 17, 2020 20:02:02 GMT
6 in a row, and that elephant in the room grows even bigger. A Mayo win, and the “problem” remains, and nothing is addressed. Hard to know what the best result would be, for the long term future of the All Ireland championship. the best result is a 30 point win for Dublin Yeah, you’re right. Although you’d have to feel some sympathy for Mayo, having battled for so long and for them not to win that elusive All Ireland.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 17, 2020 20:16:14 GMT
It is exactly what probability theory is about. Sure, it is what probability is about; but not how it works. If your fairly flip a fair coin nine times and you get nine heads, the probability of another heads is still 50%. Now obviously there are way more things going on in a system as complex as Dublin vs Mayo, but bluntly applying the wrong-idea that a long run of heads makes a tails more likely to this system is not where it's at. Apologies for being pedantic about this (and I hope you can trust my bona fides to talk about this). There is a thing which says that if you flip 100 coins and you have 55 heads, that if you are about flip another 100 the expectation is that the total proportion of heads is closer to 50% than 55%... but that isn't about expecting tails to "catch up": you expect 50 heads out of the remaining 100 and so you're expecting 55+50=105 heads total --- 52.5% --- but the odds of a head in each throw is still 50%. In other words, if Dublin beat Mayo ten times out of ten when they are 90% favourites, and they play ten more times, we expect Mayo's winning percentage to increase to 5% --- not because they are due to defy the odds but precisely because our best guess is that they will follow the odds and win one game out of the ten... but in each of the ten new games they are still a 10% shot... there is no contradiction. You can get into other effects then by noting that the match results, even if identical odds, are probably not independent. What bona fides? And your very first assumption is false, i.e. 50%. 'Mayo is the only team which can have the level of manic, chaotic energy capable of rocking Dublin' - C Whelan Even he agrees with me!
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 17, 2020 20:19:06 GMT
I was talking about a coin when I was talking about 50%. Not Dublin Mayo.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 17, 2020 20:23:23 GMT
If Mayo are to win this thing then they'll have to do something brave, something uniquely different to anything we've seen them do before, something completely off the wall different. I don't know what that could be but, maybe play keep ball between the backs for prolonged periods of time with a view to frustrating Dublin and creating a variable for which Dublin may not have factored in before the start of the match. If Mayo go out and play defensive they'll be beaten, if they go all out attacking they'll be caught up the field. If Mayo win this it'll be James Horan we'll be praising afterwards. Mayo can't afford to do the same thing again. It won't work. My fear is Mayo WILL do the same again, and so may Dublin. The best we can hope for is a good game but for how long is anyone's guess - I thought Dubs physicality was upped this year so Sat evening will tell if they can over power the play boys of the wild Western world. Mayo will always play top class traditional code, so at least we have that to look forward to and anything else like giving the auld Dubs a drubbing will be a bonus.
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Post by veteran on Dec 17, 2020 20:29:50 GMT
The best result of course would be a Mayo victory both from the gratification of seeing a wonderful football county end their litany of heartbreaks but also the striking of a blow at the apparent invincibility of the Dubs. Every empire in history eventually crashes either from factors within or factors without.
It is not long ago when the empire of cats had teams beaten before they took the field . Now those once untouchables are merely playing from memory while seemingly another empire is arising further down the M7.
Next year on the football front would you summarily rule out Kerry ; Tyrone with a new management who recently and ruthlessly won an u21 title, ask Tipp about their ruthlessness , and the likelihood of a forward line to die for; Donegal with such talent will surely make an impact; the canny Padraig Joyce. may recapture the sparkle Galway displayed in the NFL.
I am convinced the chances of all these putative contenders would have their prospects in 2021 enhanced by a Mayo victory thereby eliminating, at least diminishing, the mystique of the current champions.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 17, 2020 20:33:38 GMT
I was talking about a coin when I was talking about 50%. Not Dublin Mayo. And I wasn't talking about a coin when I was talking about Dublin and Mayo. The only bona fides that count is who is right here. The answer is not in probability theory, more in what probability theory can't predict - Mayo defy all matter of logic and if they do ala Whelan above then who knows?
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Post by kerrybhoy06 on Dec 18, 2020 7:45:09 GMT
6 in a row, and that elephant in the room grows even bigger. A Mayo win, and the “problem” remains, and nothing is addressed. Hard to know what the best result would be, for the long term future of the All Ireland championship. A very unlikely win for Mayo doesnt really change anything. One team pulling off a shock in 6 years doesnt make the issues go away
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