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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 18, 2020 7:50:28 GMT
I don't think a Mayo win changes the terms of the debate but if it is another very tight final...
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 18, 2020 8:31:26 GMT
I don't think a Mayo win changes the terms of the debate but if it is another very tight final... Improbability theory - the only test of 'theory Tomaisiní' is practice and Mayo is the class act here, synonymous with nearly, a tight finish tomorrow should have that in the Oxford Thesaurus of new words. at least we'll enjoy a game anyway and avoid the embarrassment of a dead rubber affair.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 18, 2020 9:54:17 GMT
2011 --- Dublin by a point v Kerry 2012 --- Dublin lose by three points in SF v Mayo 2013 --- Dublin by a point v Mayo 2014 --- Dublin lose by six points in SF v Donegal 2015 --- Dublin by three points v Kerry 2016 --- Draw in first final, Dublin by a point v Mayo 2017 --- Dublin by a point v Mayo 2018 --- Dublin by six points v Tyrone 2019 --- Draw in first final, Dublin by six points v Kerry
Imo: Tight games or Dublin Losses and Dub Dominance.
Not sure how to call this one... could make an argument either way.
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kerryexile
Fanatical Member
Whether you believe that you can, or that you can't, you are right anyway.
Posts: 1,108
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Post by kerryexile on Dec 18, 2020 10:15:04 GMT
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Post by glengael on Dec 18, 2020 11:33:48 GMT
If Mayo manage to win, it will be the biggest upset ever in an All Ireland Final, no question or doubt that.
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Post by Mickmack on Dec 18, 2020 13:59:58 GMT
It is exactly what probability theory is about. Sure, it is what probability is about; but not how it works. If your fairly flip a fair coin nine times and you get nine heads, the probability of another heads is still 50%. Now obviously there are way more things going on in a system as complex as Dublin vs Mayo, but bluntly applying the wrong-idea that a long run of heads makes a tails more likely to this system is not where it's at. Apologies for being pedantic about this (and I hope you can trust my bona fides to talk about this). There is a thing which says that if you flip 100 coins and you have 55 heads, that if you are about flip another 100 the expectation is that the total proportion of heads is closer to 50% than 55%... but that isn't about expecting tails to "catch up": you expect 50 heads out of the remaining 100 and so you're expecting 55+50=105 heads total --- 52.5% --- but the odds of a head in each throw is still 50%. In other words, if Dublin beat Mayo ten times out of ten when they are 90% favourites, and they play ten more times, we expect Mayo's winning percentage to increase to 5% --- not because they are due to defy the odds but precisely because our best guess is that they will follow the odds and win one game out of the ten... but in each of the ten new games they are still a 10% shot... there is no contradiction. You can get into other effects then by noting that the match results, even if identical odds, are probably not independent. this post brings me back about 20 years to when the bonus ball was introduced in the lotto. Excel had come out at the time this lad i knew put all the bonus ball numbers from the previous year into a spreadsheet. Bingo. The number 3 came up about 6 times in the previous year. Some of the other 39 numbers never came out atall as the bonus ball. Off he went to the bookies to place bets on number 3 coming out as the bonus ball. This went on for months. He had lost about 500 when he gave up. No sign of mumber 3 coming out as the bonus ball
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 18, 2020 14:29:08 GMT
Sure, it is what probability is about; but not how it works. If your fairly flip a fair coin nine times and you get nine heads, the probability of another heads is still 50%. Now obviously there are way more things going on in a system as complex as Dublin vs Mayo, but bluntly applying the wrong-idea that a long run of heads makes a tails more likely to this system is not where it's at. Apologies for being pedantic about this (and I hope you can trust my bona fides to talk about this). There is a thing which says that if you flip 100 coins and you have 55 heads, that if you are about flip another 100 the expectation is that the total proportion of heads is closer to 50% than 55%... but that isn't about expecting tails to "catch up": you expect 50 heads out of the remaining 100 and so you're expecting 55+50=105 heads total --- 52.5% --- but the odds of a head in each throw is still 50%. In other words, if Dublin beat Mayo ten times out of ten when they are 90% favourites, and they play ten more times, we expect Mayo's winning percentage to increase to 5% --- not because they are due to defy the odds but precisely because our best guess is that they will follow the odds and win one game out of the ten... but in each of the ten new games they are still a 10% shot... there is no contradiction. You can get into other effects then by noting that the match results, even if identical odds, are probably not independent. this post brings me back about 20 years to when the bonus ball was introduced in the lotto. Excel had come out at the time this lad i knew put all the bonus ball numbers from the previous year into a spreadsheet. Bingo. The number 3 came up about 6 times in the previous year. Some of the other 39 numbers never came out atall as the bonus ball. Off he went to the bookies to place bets on number 3 coming out as the bonus ball. This went on for months. He had lost about 500 when he gave up. No sign of mumber 3 coming out as the bonus ball A classic of the genre. You cannot beat the bookies only join them.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 18, 2020 15:12:29 GMT
this post brings me back about 20 years to when the bonus ball was introduced in the lotto. Excel had come out at the time this lad i knew put all the bonus ball numbers from the previous year into a spreadsheet. Bingo. The number 3 came up about 6 times in the previous year. Some of the other 39 numbers never came out atall as the bonus ball. Off he went to the bookies to place bets on number 3 coming out as the bonus ball. This went on for months. He had lost about 500 when he gave up. No sign of mumber 3 coming out as the bonus ball A classic of the genre. You cannot beat the bookies only join them. The only solution for Tomaisin is to change the theory as it fails in practice. Another solution might be to read what I said. A bit like the TCD genetics professor ridiculing The Kerry Ingredient, insisting it was coincidence we had many fathers/sons who made 'the county.'
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Post by veteran on Dec 18, 2020 15:22:11 GMT
If Mayo manage to win, it will be the biggest upset ever in an All Ireland Final, no question or doubt that. Bigger than 1982?
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 18, 2020 15:33:20 GMT
A classic of the genre. You cannot beat the bookies only join them. The only solution for Tomaisin is to change the theory as it fails in practice. Another solution might be to read what I said. A bit like the TCD genetics professor ridiculing The Kerry Ingredient, insisting it was coincidence we had many fathers/sons who made 'the county.' You made a lot more sense when you were talking about the covid.
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Post by royalkerryfan on Dec 18, 2020 16:03:39 GMT
Hard to get excited about this game with the sense of predictability about it.
The only hope Mayo have and its slim is that Dublin have not been tested so far.
The two problems for Mayo, Clarke's kickouts and their FB line. They conceded 10 or so goal chances against Tipp the last day, Dublin will convert most of those.
An awful year will close out with Dublin winning 6 in a row a feat that will likely never be matched.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 18, 2020 16:12:47 GMT
Hard to get excited about this game with the sense of predictability about it. The only hope Mayo have and its slim is that Dublin have not been tested so far. The two problems for Mayo, Clarke's kickouts and their FB line. They conceded 10 or so goal chances against Tipp the last day, Dublin will convert most of those. An awful year will close out with Dublin winning 6 in a row a feat that will likely never be matched. Maybe the best thing we could hope for is a massive meteor to put us all out of our misery 😅
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Post by royalkerryfan on Dec 18, 2020 16:29:51 GMT
Hard to get excited about this game with the sense of predictability about it. The only hope Mayo have and its slim is that Dublin have not been tested so far. The two problems for Mayo, Clarke's kickouts and their FB line. They conceded 10 or so goal chances against Tipp the last day, Dublin will convert most of those. An awful year will close out with Dublin winning 6 in a row a feat that will likely never be matched. Maybe the best thing we could hope for is a massive meteor to put us all out of our misery 😅 😂😂😂😂😂
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Post by sullyschoice on Dec 18, 2020 19:43:18 GMT
If Mayo manage to win, it will be the biggest upset ever in an All Ireland Final, no question or doubt that. Bigger than 1982? Why would you even mention 1982 with the year we have just had. Now I cant get the images out of my head.
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Post by Ballyfireside on Dec 18, 2020 20:29:59 GMT
Good free to read player comparisons in IT by DO'6 and McStay - both point to vulnerability with respective FBs and Mayo having a 20 years old there, though a FBOTY candidate maybe sums the scene up. The late Mick Finucane made a casual comment on the eve of the 2014 AIF that it was Donegal's to lose and Kerry hope might be the unknown quantity of our most recent recruits. Having got 2-2 off the Dubs in the semi Ryan McHugh couldn't stand the heat with Paul Murphy and as they say the rest is history.
Ah clutching at straws a bit but this might be how Dublin will eventually succumb, though they also have a pipeline of serious rookies.
I suppose everyone is trying to pick the lock.
Having had a good think about what said pair of hoors are at, I just hope McStay is being self-depreciating - ah maybe they were hand picked, let's enjoy, over 'n' out, just seen a wee laddo I know win a big boxing match on TV, outsiders winning there too, and the biggest ever odds horse also won this year.
Maigh Eo - your lá law is amarach!
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Post by taggert on Dec 19, 2020 8:57:55 GMT
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Post by john4 on Dec 19, 2020 9:59:47 GMT
He's not right in the head. That's an awful tirade of abuse.
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Post by southward on Dec 19, 2020 10:52:23 GMT
He's not right in the head. That's an awful tirade of abuse. Anyone else he wants to slag off? Years worth of dressing-room fodder for several teams there. Ironically, Hickey complains of a lack of respect for his own county.
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Post by Mickmack on Dec 19, 2020 11:10:59 GMT
Dr David Hickey: ‘I don’t have much time for this Mayo team. They’re a tragic outfit’
Dublin legend Dr David Hickey doesn’t have a high opinion of the champions' challengers
Dr David Hickey: ‘I don’t have much time for this Mayo team. They’re a tragic outfit’
SAT, 19 DEC, 2020 - 06:00 JOHN FOGARTY
“When is this going to appear?” asks Dr David Hickey, a flicker of roguishness in his query. “Saturday? That’s okay then — so Mayo won’t have much time to read it.”
Pride colours so many of the former Dublin star’s words as he talks about the All-Ireland champions, a group many of whom he got to know well as a selector during Pat Gilroy’s time and as a medic in the early part of Jim Gavin’s era.
The man who first publicly predicted Dublin would claim the five in a row, he simply doesn’t see Mayo getting in their way of a sixth consecutive All-Ireland title.
Mayo win all the All-Stars awards and the player of the year and all this sort of crap but they always do because they’re such a tragic outfit. Andy Moran getting player of the year — he played half a game in every match. The Mayo goalkeeper (David Clarke) getting the All-Star ahead of Cluxton there one year. “Dublin beat Mayo by 10 points in the semi-final last year when it was supposed to be a close match. I don’t have much time for this Mayo team myself. It will be a hard match for a fair bit of it, though.
“Every game for Dublin is because they burst their bollocks for 70 minutes. You never see those fellas taking it easy. They’re a model for how a team should be.
“But I don’t rate Mayo and I don’t think Mayo will be close at the end of the game. They could be putting this article up in the dressing room in Croke Park on Saturday!”
The lack of respect for Dublin does irritate Hickey. Although Mick O’Dwyer predicted in 2018 that Dublin would complete the five in a row, Hickey claims the former Kerry manager has never given them their fair dues.
“They won’t get it from guys like Mick O’Dwyer who are steeped in their own importance but anyone who looks at their record objectively will see that there is no question that they are the greatest Gaelic football team of all time.
“I really wouldn’t be interested in what O’Dwyer says; I think most other people though would acknowledge that. They put more work in than anyone else and they do it on the day as well as in training.
“You get tired of listening to talk of money and population. I think Pat Gilroy had it right the other night — why don’t Kerry, Cork, and Tipperary join forces rather than splitting Dublin in two and maybe they could have a go at the All-Ireland then? I think that’s a good idea.”
The son of a Doneraile man, you put it to Hickey that either he, Gilroy, or both of them are being flippant but no, he says.
“I don’t think so. Cork will never win an All-Ireland with the way they approached the game. Their performance against Tipperary was shocking.
Kerry were similar against Cork. Too arrogant. And no achievements whatsoever — they have won nothing. They won a league this year that nobody gave a damn about. When the fat was in the fire, they packed it in. They (that group) will never win an All-Ireland.
“Split Dublin and the two Dublin teams will be in the final for the next 20 years and that will sicken people even more. The work done in Dublin is huge.
“People are leaving rugby for Gaelic football in Dublin because of this great team as well as the concerns about concussion. So many of the Dublin team now come from the southside of the city, which was rugby territory up to 10 years ago.”
Hickey obviously speaks from a position of strength but knowledge too. This evening, seven players although all seven are unlikely to be included in the matchday panel, can join the Kerry legends of Denis “Ogie” Moran, Ger Power, Páidí Ó Sé, Mikey Sheehy, and Pat Spillane as eight-time All-Ireland senior football winners.
Hickey marvels at the longevity of Stephen Cluxton, Michael Fitzsimons, Philly McMahon, James McCarthy, Cian O’Sullivan, Michael Darragh MacAuley, and Kevin McManamon but insists it wouldn’t be possible without their humility.
“Dublin play every game as if they’re the underdogs. They fight for everything, every last cause under the final whistle blows and usually by the end of it they’re 20 points ahead. But they play as if their lives depend on it.
“Their respect for the opposition is huge no matter who it is. Like, you saw Cork getting caught by Tipp because they didn’t show it and for the same reason Kerry got caught by Cork. Donegal got caught by Cavan but that won’t happen to Dublin.
The best football match you’ll see in Ireland is definitely on a Saturday morning on the DCU grounds when the Dublin’s As play Dublin’s Bs. The Bs run them to three or four points at worse and sometimes beat them. That’s the way they are. “I think Colm Cooper said it a few years ago — they just play as if you’re not there. You can slap them, you can kick them, you can score a goal against them but they’ll just pick themselves up and carry on.
“They’re an extraordinary group of fellas, I must say,” Hickey continues. “They’re respectful, pleasant, no arrogance about them whatsoever. They’re fantastic. I love watching them. I’m nervous watching them but I love watching them.
“For a while we had all this sledging bull* and crap that is associated with Ulster football, getting into the face of the opposition and personal stuff. Gilroy came in and all that bull*, all that chauvinistic crap associated with Dublin teams went out the window.
“Training sessions start at 6am and then every Friday we played a friendly match against Monaghan in Inniskeen usually in the pissing rain, in the muck and the snow. A lot of people dropped out after that. Pat was looking for character and the remaining core of players had that. Cluxton would have been playing corner-forward some nights up in Inniskeen.
“On the coldest winter in years, they were training on Dollymount Strand at 5.30 in the morning and what Pat found was not just footballers but characters. We lost to Cork in 2010 but from there on the profile of the Dublin footballer changed and that profile is still there.
“If we won the All-Ireland in 2012, it would have been difficult for Jim to follow it up with another. He changed it a bit but he didn’t mess with it — he learned from the Donegal loss in 2014 alright — and Dessie is doing the same now.”
The decision by Gavin to resign 11 months ago, as sudden as it was and as much as it left the current manager Farrell with little time to prepare for the 2020 season before Covid struck, was correct, Hickey believes.
“Jim left at the right time. Not that things were stale but that can happen quickly and things get old. A new fella has new ideas. Now, you don’t break what isn’t broken and I think Dessie has seen that but he has introduced some new fellas and has kept the thing going.
“They’re a happy bunch because he’s a considerate fella and so many of them have played U21 with him so they know him a long time.”
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Post by Mickmack on Dec 19, 2020 11:14:22 GMT
in fairness that view that Mayo were terrible was prevelent on this forum for a good few years till Mayo beat Kerry.
Very revealing about David Hickey.
He is right that if Dublin were split north and south that the two two teams would meet in the final.
Maybe not every year.
So Dublin must be split into at least 4 teams.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2020 11:24:31 GMT
Super article. Shows up his arrogance.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 19, 2020 11:27:47 GMT
in fairness that view that Mayo were terrible was prevelent on this forum for a good few years till Mayo beat Kerry. I could have gone in a capsule back to 2017 and heard myself saying very similar things about Mayo. They bloodied Kerry's nose in that SF replay and I had to give them their dues after that.
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Post by john4 on Dec 19, 2020 11:28:49 GMT
"“They’re an extraordinary group of fellas, I must say,” Hickey continues. “They’re respectful, pleasant, no arrogance about them whatsoever. They’re fantastic. I love watching them. I’m nervous watching them but I love watching them""
Very sad how he lacks all the same qualities he admires.
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Post by Mickmack on Dec 19, 2020 11:31:06 GMT
in fairness that view that Mayo were terrible was prevelent on this forum for a good few years till Mayo beat Kerry. I could have gone in a capsule back to 2017 and heard myself saying very similar things about Mayo. They bloodied Kerry's nose in that SF replay and I had to give them their dues after that. Why did it take beating Kerry for you to see that that Mayo team circa 2016 were a very good team. Had they been handed the drawn final by the ref like Dublin were in 2011 they would be All Ireland champions.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 19, 2020 11:38:37 GMT
I could have gone in a capsule back to 2017 and heard myself saying very similar things about Mayo. They bloodied Kerry's nose in that SF replay and I had to give them their dues after that. Why did it take beating Kerry for you to see that that Mayo team circa 2016 were a very good team. Because bar Dublin 2012 they had beaten nothing.
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Post by Mickmack on Dec 19, 2020 11:56:31 GMT
Why did it take beating Kerry for you to see that that Mayo team circa 2016 were a very good team. Because bar Dublin 2012 they had beaten nothing. okaaaaay..... so had Pat Lane penalised Bastick for picking the ball cleanly off the ground (more clearly a free that Joe's one at the end of 2011 final) would Mayo suddenly have gained your respect. In other words the vagaries of decisions by refs decide whether a team is worthy of respect by you. Is that it?
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exiled
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Post by exiled on Dec 19, 2020 11:57:24 GMT
David Hickey says there is absolutely no arrogance in the Dublin team. He seems to have enough for all them..
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2020 12:10:32 GMT
That bizarre reference to Micko shows Hickey is still bitter about being second best to that great Kerry team
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Post by taggert on Dec 19, 2020 12:25:27 GMT
Yes, he is so bitter and twisted over Kerry he could hide behind a corkscrew....
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Dec 19, 2020 12:57:01 GMT
Because bar Dublin 2012 they had beaten nothing. okaaaaay..... so had Pat Lane penalised Bastick for picking the ball cleanly off the ground (more clearly a free that Joe's one at the end of 2011 final) would Mayo suddenly have gained your respect. In other words the vagaries of decisions by refs decide whether a team is worthy of respect by you. Is that it? I have no interest in going down this line. My belief is champion teams don't give the ref a chance to have a say.
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