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Post by hatchetman on Mar 31, 2022 15:00:03 GMT
Paddy power odds
Kerry 8/15
Draw 8/1
Mayo 2/1
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thehermit
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Tell an old man who saw them in days of old, Do they still walk proudly in their green and gold?
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 15:06:58 GMT
Paddy power odds Kerry 8/15 Draw 8/1 Mayo 2/1 As someone who hasn't a clue about betting or bookies odds does the above signify we are heavy favourites or what? |
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 15:11:53 GMT
There's a bit of truth in all posters' views here I think. A win Sunday, after a tough game, will go a long way in exorcising some of the ghosts. Joe Brolly and Cavanagh will then tell us (should Kerry win) that we only beat Munster or Connaught oposition. Jack knows that the only way to silence our critics is with, League, Munster and All Ireland wins,. Back to back first and then onwards and upwards from there. I shall embrace my inner animal and state that only an All Ireland will sate me. A win on Sunday after a tough game might hopefully be a step in that direction but in and of itself will be a fleeting joy. |
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Post by dodgyknees on Mar 31, 2022 15:17:03 GMT
Paddy power odds Kerry 8/15 Draw 8/1 Mayo 2/1 The draw could be worth a few pounds! Can't see there being more than a few points between the teams |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2022 15:19:35 GMT
Paddy power odds Kerry 8/15 Draw 8/1 Mayo 2/1 As someone who hasn't a clue about betting or bookies odds does the above signify we are heavy favourites or what? Ya I'd also like to know that. |
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 15:23:02 GMT
Those odds would make Kerry strong favourites.
By my calculations, it translates into an approx. 59% chance of Kerry win, 10% chance of draw, 30% chance Mayo win.
There is a missing percentage point due to rounding error.
Someone who knows only a little about odds will say, are Mayo not a 33% chance? They are according to 2/1 odds, but that difference, between this 33% and 30%, is the bookies' cut.
Without this cut, the way it works is 2/1 means that Mayo win once and not win twice... that is they win one out of three times... approx. 33%.
Similarly 8/1 on the draw means a draw once, and not a draw eight times... that is a draw once in nine games approx. 11%.
Kerry 8/15 means Kerry win 15 times and not win eight times... so they win 15/23 approx. 65% times.
It means, roughly, that if you put down €109 of bets on this match: €65 on a Kerry win, €11 on the draw, and €33 on Mayo, you will get back about €100 if Kerry win, €99 on the draw, and €99 if Mayo win.
So the bookies' cut is, in the long run, about 10% of all bets on the outcome of the match.
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Post by hatchetman on Mar 31, 2022 15:24:21 GMT
Paddy power odds Kerry 8/15 Draw 8/1 Mayo 2/1 As someone who hasn't a clue about betting or bookies odds does the above signify we are heavy favourites or what? Yes, Kerry are strong favourites. If you put £15 on Kerry you'll get back £23 if they win. If you put £15 on Mayo you'll get back £45 if they win. |
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Post by kerrybhoy06 on Mar 31, 2022 15:37:51 GMT
2/1 on Mayo is a good bet to be honest as I don’t make us heavy favourites
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mike70
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Post by mike70 on Mar 31, 2022 16:31:05 GMT
It’s a 50 50 game, you think we have the better scoring power, but it’s croke park, so linking up back to front will be critical, we kick it, Mayo run it, should be interesting.
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Post by Mickmack on Mar 31, 2022 16:32:33 GMT
Saturday 14 August 2021
Mayo 0-17
Dublin 0-14
Mayo
1. Rob Hennelly (Breaffy)
2. Padraig O’Hora (Ballina Stephenites),
3. Lee Keegan (Westport),
4. Michael Plunkett (Ballintubber)
5. Paddy Durcan (Castlebar Mitchels),
6. Stephen Coen (Hollymount/Carramore),
7. Eoghan McLaughlin (Westport)
8. Matthew Ruane (Breaffy), 9. Conor Loftus (Crossmolina)
10. Diarmuid O’Connor (Ballintubber) 11. Kevin McLoughlin (Knockmore), 12. Darren McHale (Knockmore)
13. Tommy Conroy (The Neale),
14. Aidan O’Shea (Breaffy),
P15. Ryan O’Donoghue (Belmullet)
Subs
19. Enda Hession (Garrymore) for McHale (27)
23. Bryan Walsh (Ballintubber) for Plunkett (49)
26. James Carr (Ardagh) for Aidan O’Shea (49)
24. Jordan Flynn (Crossmolina) for McLaughlin (inj) (58)
21. Conor O’Shea (Breaffy) for Loftus (64)
25. Darren Coen (Hollymount-Carramore) for Stephen Coen (76)
9. Loftus for McLoughlin (81)
18. Brendan Harrison (Aghamore) for O’Connor (87)
14. O’Shea for Darren Coen (91)
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Post by Mickmack on Mar 31, 2022 16:33:48 GMT
How many of the above side that beat Dublin in the 2021 championship are unavailable for sunday...
I know Tommy Conroy is gone.
Is Brendan Harrison out too
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Post by Mickmack on Mar 31, 2022 16:40:42 GMT
The 2019 league final
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peanuts
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Post by peanuts on Mar 31, 2022 16:58:13 GMT
How many of the above side that beat Dublin in the 2021 championship are unavailable for sunday... I know Tommy Conroy is gone. Is Brendan Harrison out too Yes, Harrison is definitely out, did his ACL last week. Hennelly has missed the last 2 games for Mayo and I haven't seen McLaughlin since the Sigerson, not sure what's the story with him. |
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peanuts
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Post by peanuts on Mar 31, 2022 17:02:09 GMT
Kingdomson its an interesting observation. I grew up in an era when we were Kings and always had an excuse when we lost but the reality is we are no longer the feared King and as a matter of fact many think we are the overhyped team that teams love to play against. Many think we are soft and until we win Sam we cannot argue against that. Just because we are Kerry does nt mean we are entitled to titles as Cork hurlers found out. We are in a new era where Dublin are the Kings of football and Limerick are the ki gs of hurling and until we win national titles that will not change. Maybe its the golden years team that is overhyped. Connacht went without an All Ireland for 32 years prior to 1998. They was a war in Ulster for roughly the same period. Having said that, since 2014 Kerry have lost many close games in the championship that we 'coulda shoulda' won. Have we? I can only think of 2, last year against Tyrone and the Munster SF against Cork in 2020. I'm not sure you could say we should've won any of the other games we lost. You could include the 2019 drawn game alright I suppose. |
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 17:14:34 GMT
Maybe its the golden years team that is overhyped. Connacht went without an All Ireland for 32 years prior to 1998. They was a war in Ulster for roughly the same period. Having said that, since 2014 Kerry have lost many close games in the championship that we 'coulda shoulda' won. Have we? I can only think of 2, last year against Tyrone and the Munster SF against Cork in 2020. I'm not sure you could say we should've won any of the other games we lost. You could include the 2019 drawn game alright I suppose. I would say Kerry could have won their knockout game in every year... except maybe were Kerry clearly second best to Mayo in 2017? Bar 2018 also. That was some stinker vs Galway. |
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thehermit
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Tell an old man who saw them in days of old, Do they still walk proudly in their green and gold?
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 18:08:34 GMT
Those odds would make Kerry strong favourites. By my calculations, it translates into an approx. 59% chance of Kerry win, 10% chance of draw, 30% chance Mayo win. There is a missing percentage point due to rounding error. Someone who knows only a little about odds will say, are Mayo not a 33% chance? They are according to 2/1 odds, but that difference, between this 33% and 30%, is the bookies' cut. Without this cut, the way it works is 2/1 means that Mayo win once and not win twice... that is they win one out of three times... approx. 33%. Similarly 8/1 on the draw means a draw once, and not a draw eight times... that is a draw once in nine games approx. 11%. Kerry 8/15 means Kerry win 15 times and not win eight times... so they win 15/23 approx. 65% times. It means, roughly, that if you put down €109 of bets on this match: €65 on a Kerry win, €11 on the draw, and €33 on Mayo, you will get back about €100 if Kerry win, €99 on the draw, and €99 if Mayo win. So the bookies' cut is, in the long run, about 10% of all bets on the outcome of the match.
Thank you for explaining that Annascual, as you can tell something like Cheltenham would pass me by.
Beware the man of many vices, though not as much as the man with none - I find that as good a creed as any  |
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thehermit
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Tell an old man who saw them in days of old, Do they still walk proudly in their green and gold?
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 18:16:35 GMT
How many of the above side that beat Dublin in the 2021 championship are unavailable for sunday... I know Tommy Conroy is gone. Is Brendan Harrison out too Yes, Harrison is definitely out, did his ACL last week. Hennelly has missed the last 2 games for Mayo and I haven't seen McLaughlin since the Sigerson, not sure what's the story with him. I've heard Diarmuid O’Connor and Paddy Durcan are doubts as well due to hamstring trouble, in fact I saw somewhere a couple of days ago claims Mayo could be without 7 or 8 including long term absentee Cillian.
How much any of that is true is any ones guess I suppose.
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Post by exiled on Mar 31, 2022 18:34:49 GMT
Yes, Harrison is definitely out, did his ACL last week. Hennelly has missed the last 2 games for Mayo and I haven't seen McLaughlin since the Sigerson, not sure what's the story with him. I've heard Diarmuid O’Connor and Paddy Durcan are doubts as well due to hamstring trouble, in fact I saw somewhere a couple of days ago claims Mayo could be without 7 or 8 including long term absentee Cillian. How much any of that is true is any ones guess I suppose.
No word seeps out from the camp in Mayo. A lot of rumours that 99% of the time are false. I don't think even Horans mrs gets told. Eoghan McLoughlin was supposed to be out for the league after getting injured in the Sigerson but played 2 weeks later but hasn't featured since. Rumours that Cillian could have 20mins on Sunday. |
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thehermit
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Tell an old man who saw them in days of old, Do they still walk proudly in their green and gold?
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 19:10:47 GMT
Cillian is out a long long time now, he'd want to appear for them soon or you begin to think he never will appear again.
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fitz
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Post by fitz on Mar 31, 2022 20:00:47 GMT
Paddy Durcan is a cracking half back, player
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MeathExile
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Post by MeathExile on Mar 31, 2022 21:25:37 GMT
Those odds would make Kerry strong favourites. By my calculations, it translates into an approx. 59% chance of Kerry win, 10% chance of draw, 30% chance Mayo win. There is a missing percentage point due to rounding error. Someone who knows only a little about odds will say, are Mayo not a 33% chance? They are according to 2/1 odds, but that difference, between this 33% and 30%, is the bookies' cut. Without this cut, the way it works is 2/1 means that Mayo win once and not win twice... that is they win one out of three times... approx. 33%. Similarly 8/1 on the draw means a draw once, and not a draw eight times... that is a draw once in nine games approx. 11%. Kerry 8/15 means Kerry win 15 times and not win eight times... so they win 15/23 approx. 65% times. It means, roughly, that if you put down €109 of bets on this match: €65 on a Kerry win, €11 on the draw, and €33 on Mayo, you will get back about €100 if Kerry win, €99 on the draw, and €99 if Mayo win. So the bookies' cut is, in the long run, about 10% of all bets on the outcome of the match. Thank you for explaining that Annascual, as you can tell something like Cheltenham would pass me by.
Beware the man of many vices, though not as much as the man with none - I find that as good a creed as any |
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MeathExile
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I wonder, is there a goal in this game??
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Post by MeathExile on Mar 31, 2022 21:31:29 GMT
Thanks Annascaul - I’m from the same stable as TheHermit….no pun intended. I have done many laps of Fairyhouse on my jogs but very rarely for the races. Odds and betting not for me. Good explanation.
If Mayo are missing that many then we should win by a few lengths….
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2022 21:36:50 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours.
Any1 expect any surprises?
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 21:37:10 GMT
Thanks Annascaul - I’m from the same stable as TheHermit….no pun intended. I have done many laps of Fairyhouse on my jogs but very rarely for the races. Odds and betting not for me. Good explanation. If Mayo are missing that many then we should win by a few lengths…. I am more into the probability than the betting. I don't think I have put down more than a handful of bets in the last 15 years. |
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Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 31, 2022 21:44:20 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours. Any1 expect any surprises? Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong. |
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fitz
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Red sky at night get off my land
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Post by fitz on Mar 31, 2022 21:45:46 GMT
Bookies and poverty, never seen
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Post by Whosinmidfield on Mar 31, 2022 21:56:52 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours. Any1 expect any surprises? Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong. I listened to that too and I didn’t take it as a joke but I’d be slow enough believing him. He also said something about someone coming out of retirement if I picked him up right? |
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Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 31, 2022 22:01:55 GMT
Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong. I listened to that too and I didn’t take it as a joke but I’d be slow enough believing him. He also said something about someone coming out of retirement if I picked him up right? He did and for some reason my mind went to Peter Crowley. |
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Post by Whosinmidfield on Mar 31, 2022 22:08:14 GMT
I listened to that too and I didn’t take it as a joke but I’d be slow enough believing him. He also said something about someone coming out of retirement if I picked him up right? He did and for some reason my mind went to Peter Crowley. Mine actually went to Tommy Walsh but I don’t see either as a good idea. Walsh might make a bit more sense as a plan b while I don’t see Crowley near any place in the backs. I still don’t think it will or should happen though, why now and not a few weeks back when whoever it is could have got league minutes? Also the positional change, I can’t think of any possibility for that. We’ve had a very successful league campaign, all this talk would suggest we’re really struggling. |
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Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 31, 2022 22:14:32 GMT
He did and for some reason my mind went to Peter Crowley. Mine actually went to Tommy Walsh but I don’t see either as a good idea. Walsh might make a bit more sense as a plan b while I don’t see Crowley near any place in the backs. I still don’t think it will or should happen though, why now and not a few weeks back when whoever it is could have got league minutes? Also the positional change, I can’t think of any possibility for that. We’ve had a very successful league campaign, all this talk would suggest we’re really struggling. I completely agree, a bit strange alright. |
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