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Post by Annascaultilidie on Sept 30, 2016 14:48:50 GMT
Mayo were heroic in the last 15 minutes but still did loads of really stupid *.
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Post by kerrygold on Sept 30, 2016 15:21:58 GMT
Mayo unchanged.
Mayo team: David Clarke, Brendan Harrison, Donal Vaughan, Keith Higgins, Lee Keegan, Colm Boyle, Patrick Durcan, Seamus O'Shea, Tom Parsons, Kevin McLoughlin, Aidan O'Shea, Diarmuid O'Connor, Jason Doherty. Andy Moran, Cillian O'Connor.
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Post by delorean on Sept 30, 2016 15:27:12 GMT
But chances almost always happen in a game, much much more often than freak deflections send the ball into the net. Chances are taken much less than created. I know where you're coming from but I'd look at it a bit differently. The chances in that first half were coughed up a little too easily for my liking, the two that resulted in own goals and at least one more clear-cut opportunity when Clarke saved. Was there another one as well? Of course Dublin can and will miss chances, but they're also capable of scoring them, so it's playing with fire and Mayo ended up getting burnt, albeit in an unusual way. Nobody is disputing the freakish nature of the way the ball ended up in the net, twice, but there would have been nothing majorly freakish about Dublin taking the chances themselves, regardless of statistics to the contrary. I agree that 99 times out of 100 it won't end up in the net courtesy of an opposing player, but I also think if you're loose enough defensively to concede three or four good goal chances to a decent team in one half of football, there's an excellent chance you'll concede a goal or two. Dublin knocked in three goals in fifteen minutes in the semi final replay last year, they're well capable of having a clinical spell. Mayo didn't concede any goal chances in the second half that I remember and I think Kerry only conceded one half chance (to McMahon) in the whole of the semi final. Mayo only had one chance of note themselves the last day, when Andy Moran sliced over, so it's not that inevitable that multiple goal chances will be created.
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Post by MrRasherstoyou on Sept 30, 2016 16:05:15 GMT
But chances almost always happen in a game, much much more often than freak deflections send the ball into the net. Chances are taken much less than created. I know where you're coming from but I'd look at it a bit differently. The chances in that first half were coughed up a little too easily for my liking, the two that resulted in own goals and at least one more clear-cut opportunity when Clarke saved. Was there another one as well? Of course Dublin can and will miss chances, but they're also capable of scoring them, so it's playing with fire and Mayo ended up getting burnt, albeit in an unusual way. Nobody is disputing the freakish nature of the way the ball ended up in the net, twice, but there would have been nothing majorly freakish about Dublin taking the chances themselves, regardless of statistics to the contrary. I agree that 99 times out of 100 it won't end up in the net courtesy of an opposing player, but I also think if you're loose enough defensively to concede three or four good goal chances to a decent team in one half of football, there's an excellent chance you'll concede a goal or two. Dublin knocked in three goals in fifteen minutes in the semi final replay last year, they're well capable of having a clinical spell. Mayo didn't concede any goal chances in the second half that I remember and I think Kerry only conceded one half chance (to McMahon) in the whole of the semi final. Mayo only had one chance of note themselves the last day, when Andy Moran sliced over, so it's not that inevitable that multiple goal chances will be created. But they didn't 'take the chances', and that's part of the game. Either you perform well enough/better than your opponent or you don't. Creating chances is often not enough. You need a consistent record of taking them to have any confidence that they will be taken in the next game, in the same season at least. The degree of difficulty is not going to get less unless Mayo disimprove notably in the backs and they seem to have an ever-solidifying system. Same as Dublin in 2010-11, they only lost to Cork on frees, and Kerry's goal in 2011 was an outstanding piece of double individual brilliance. I've outlined in the reply to Kerrygold how the evidence percentages are very much pointing to Dublin not taking their chances, more and more, and Mayo reducing the likelihood of conceding goals. So in reference to the replay, evidence very much points to Dublin not getting goals. And Mayo managed 15 points in difficult conditions, only thing you could argue was lucky about them was a couple of very soft free-given ones. So in better conditions (looks very likely) unless Mayo drop their performance (I've posted the evidence why I think that's unlikely) then they could/should get upwards of 18-20 points. Nobody said Dublin's backs didn't play well. That's another discussion. Dublin's forwards maybe didn't defend so good (as well as obviously not playing good/doing well in an attacking sense) So if Dublin's backs don't have that much room for improvement, the only other thing that might curb Mayo scoring (and I don't expect the ref to be overly kind to us) is if Dublin's forwards (and midfielders) win, and keep possession much better, if our forwards defend better, and if we play a different system that might curb Mayo a bit better. Let's say that happens to some extent, and Mayo are not significantly better. That would leave Mayo scoring about 15 again. Dublin in effect scored 0-9 but I'd allow another 2 or 3 points if the goals hadn't gone in. That leaves Dublin needing to make up 3 points extra to draw level. 4 or realistically at least 5 to win. If Mayo (as is demonstrably possible) improve by 10%, then Dublin would need 17 points-ish just to have a chance to survive, that would represent almost a 50% improvement on the last day, though say 20% of that would be down to conditions. So a real improvement of 25-30% may realistically be needed. Could happen I suppose but I'd say precedent is very slim for all those factors to play out that way. Mayo 16-18 Dublin 14-16.
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Post by Green&Red on Sept 30, 2016 19:10:04 GMT
Rashers...would you agree that when it comes to the rough stuff and the cynical stuff between Dublin and mayo ....a fair conclusion would be that there is a pair of them in it? I think it's a fair assessment and conclusion anyway That's all us Mayo fans think as well, just want a bit of balance in the media discussions. My head is fried with the build up to the game. 6 weeks now since our game against Tipp. Roll on 5pm tomorrow!!
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Post by delorean on Sept 30, 2016 20:51:31 GMT
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Post by kerrygold on Sept 30, 2016 21:05:14 GMT
Named 30 starting players unlikely to start. Has Gavin ever started the named 15?
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Post by mayo4sam on Sept 30, 2016 21:20:25 GMT
Wet day forecast for tomorrow, more of the same from the mayo backs and more needed from the mayo midfield and forwards.
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Post by Mickmack on Sept 30, 2016 21:41:11 GMT
Costello on Ó Beaglaoich could easily have been the other way around had Kerry been the ones leading by two. Don't fool yourself, there are no kids at this level. This is one of the reasons that Dublin looked good against Kerry... Kerry made it far too easy. Dublin outscored Kerry by 6 points to 1 from the 60th minute on. I would love to be able to agree with you and say that Kerry were cynical but the truth is that all of those 6 points were built from the back with hardly a Kerry tackle... the only cynical bit was Enright on Brogan for the free but make no mistake about it..mayo would have strangled those attacks about 60 yards from goal. Have a look at the video yourself if you doubt what i am saying. Its cringing from aKerry point of view. Kerry were a lot meaner outfit in 2014 and look what happened. I think every substitution weakened Kerry but Dublin got it far too easy. A rake of Dublin points in the first half came from Kerrys own kickout.... too easy. The two best teams are in the final. So Mayo pose problems for the Dubs that Kerry didnt. Maybe Dublin didnt have a poor day the last day...rather Mayos gameplan threw a spanner in the works. I cant see Dublin coping any better tomorrow. I will hesitantly go for a mayo win by something like 1.14 to 0.15
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Post by Seoirse Ui Duic on Sept 30, 2016 21:50:41 GMT
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Post by skybluezone on Sept 30, 2016 21:55:32 GMT
Named 30 starting players unlikely to start. Has Gavin ever started the named 15? Try the last day.
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Post by thebluepanther on Sept 30, 2016 22:07:56 GMT
Wet day forecast for tomorrow, more of the same from the mayo backs and more needed from the mayo midfield and forwards. Dublin will be thinking the exact same. Mayos ambush is now gone, but their confidence has to be higher. As Ger Brennan said it's whoever is in the moment will win it.
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Post by jackiel on Sept 30, 2016 22:09:47 GMT
Really cant see that team starting tomorrow.
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Post by delorean on Sept 30, 2016 22:52:27 GMT
would love to be able to agree with you and say that Kerry were cynical but the truth is that all of those 6 points were built from the back with hardly a Kerry tackle... the only cynical bit was Enright on Brogan for the free but make no mistake about it..mayo would have strangled those attacks about 60 yards from goal. Have a look at the video yourself if you doubt what i am saying. Its cringing from aKerry point of view. Kerry were a lot meaner outfit in 2014 and look what happened. My point wasn't specific to 2016 really, just that all counties have had plenty of moments of cynicism. Like I said, the main culprits can change from match to match or year to year or whatever, I just think lengthy, imbalanced debates full of stone throwing and whataboutery don't serve much purpose and aren't very enjoyable for the reader. Kerry have the bones of the same team and same management as two years ago, so I have no idea what would have brought about an overnight sanitation, if that is the case.
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Post by ddtinexile on Sept 30, 2016 23:32:40 GMT
Must be some sort of record....not naming the team until the eve of the All Ireland final. They can use the last day's programme anyway....no changes but I bet there will be a few before the ball is thrown in. Wonder is our Joe doing linesman again, perhaps Coldricks an Gough will probably tog out also.
Mayo for me by a lovely last minute point.....what a dagger to the heart that would be.
If that were to happen both would be gone for about 5 years, Mayo celebrating and the Dubs distraught .
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Post by thebluepanther on Sept 30, 2016 23:39:39 GMT
Must be some sort of record....not naming the team until the eve of the All Ireland final. They can use the last day's programme anyway....no changes but I bet there will be a few before the ball is thrown in. Wonder is our Joe doing linesman again, perhaps Coldricks an Gough will probably tog out also. Mayo for me by a lovely last minute point.....what a dagger to the heart that would be. If that were to happen both would be gone for about 5 years, Mayo celebrating and the Dubs distraught . Sad post really. But sure if ye feel that's what Kerry need to reach the summit again , that's your perogative.
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Post by Seoirse Ui Duic on Oct 1, 2016 1:28:32 GMT
Must be some sort of record....not naming the team until the eve of the All Ireland final. They can use the last day's programme anyway....no changes but I bet there will be a few before the ball is thrown in. Wonder is our Joe doing linesman again, perhaps Coldricks an Gough will probably tog out also. Mayo for me by a lovely last minute point.....what a dagger to the heart that would be. If that were to happen both would be gone for about 5 years, Mayo celebrating and the Dubs distraught . Sad post really. But sure if ye feel that's what Kerry need to reach the summit again , that's your perogative. I actually feel that if Mayo win it, they will be a force to reckon with for a few more years. Until this team becomes too old. I don't think they will win another All Ireland though. If this Mayo team don't do it tomorrow, they never will. If Dublin win tomorrow they will still dominate Leinster, but will slowly decline again. I secretly hope Dublin will win. Mayo supporters have not been behaving very nicely the last few weeks
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Post by ddtinexile on Oct 1, 2016 2:15:49 GMT
Did I mention Kerry in my sad little post. Don't think so. Jumped the gun there Panther . But be certain that Kerry will reach the summit a lot sooner than you think.
Come on the bleeding culchies.
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Post by farneysarmy on Oct 1, 2016 7:23:11 GMT
Wet day forecast for tomorrow, more of the same from the mayo backs and more needed from the mayo midfield and forwards. Wet day gere in Dublin so far. Due ro clearly by afternoon
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Post by farneysarmy on Oct 1, 2016 7:28:17 GMT
Must be some sort of record....not naming the team until the eve of the All Ireland final. They can use the last day's programme anyway....no changes but I bet there will be a few before the ball is thrown in. Wonder is our Joe doing linesman again, perhaps Coldricks an Gough will probably tog out also. Mayo for me by a lovely last minute point.....what a dagger to the heart that would be. If that were to happen both would be gone for about 5 years, Mayo celebrating and the Dubs distraught . Wintering well i see!😂
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Post by farneysarmy on Oct 1, 2016 7:30:45 GMT
Named 30 starting players unlikely to start. Has Gavin ever started the named 15? 2 weeks ago....
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Post by wayupnorth on Oct 1, 2016 7:44:10 GMT
Much as I would rather that we were there it's been very interesting looking on from the point of a neutral. Both teams have bags of skill and motivation with the odds slightly in Dublin's favour for the former and well in Mayo's favour for the latter. Pushed to give a personal preference I might go for Mayo only for the very selfish reason that they would finally win but not at our expense. On the other hand we were the last team to beat Dublin on their current run and I would like us to be the team to break that sequence. This has the makings of a very interesting game where anything can and probably will happen and I find I'm more excited about it than I have ever been for any other non-Kerry match.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Oct 1, 2016 8:22:28 GMT
Deep down, I'd hate to see Mayo beat the team we can't beat. I will be quite satisfied to see Dublin beat a team I don't believe have what it takes. Of course my belief is wrong but it's just nice to see one's prejudices borne out. Unlike when Cillian O'Connor kicked that epic point!
I have to say 2014 really bugged me and I continue to delight in Mayo's misfortune. This is of course very mean-spirited but if they do win it will be incredible. If they do win I will be very happy for them. They are such a brave team and if they win it will be because they were good enough.
There will be some emotion in the stands if they do it. I think Dublin will be better though but all I really want is for a good game.
To my mind, by definition, the best team wins. If Mayo are to be the best team in the land heartiest and sincere congratulations to them. I won't be found wanting with the humble pie.
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Post by taggert on Oct 1, 2016 8:26:57 GMT
If Kerry were in the All Ireland final today, which I wish, the very last thing I would be doing would be writing on a GAA forum for another county.
Its as if people are coming on here looking to be wound up and/or to wind othrrs up.
Ger Brennan is no philosopher and neither is Tadhg Kennelly either. I dont care what they think before the game as they are no wiser than any of the 82,000 who will be there today. Both players nearly knocked a players head off in a final and maybe thats what they mean by whoever is (left) in the moment.
Enjoy the game and the analysis of same will be a lot more insightful (less inciteful!) after the fact.....
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Post by MrRasherstoyou on Oct 1, 2016 8:33:00 GMT
Thanks to all on here for the chat, debate, information, passion, rows, and abuse ( ) here over the summer, if today is the end. Two weeks is too long to wait for a replay, damn those laaaadiieeeeees! And you know what they say, 'everything will be alright in the end. And if it's not alright, then it's not the end'.
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Post by MrRasherstoyou on Oct 1, 2016 8:38:47 GMT
If Kerry were in the All Ireland final today, which I wish, the very last thing I would be doing would be writing on a GAA forum for another county. Its as if people are coming on here looking to be wound up and/or to wind othrrs up. Ger Brennan is no philosopher and neither is Tadhg Kennelly either. I dont care what they think before the game as they are no wiser than any of the 82,000 who will be there today. Both players nearly knocked a players head off in a final and maybe thats what they mean by whoever is (left) in the moment. Enjoy the game and the analysis of same will be a lot more insightful (less inciteful!) after the fact..... It's just nice to hear/read some alternative views. The getting wound up bit is only a very small part of it, I'd prefer to say banter. Some of us are by instinct argumentative so-and-so's, and also analytical about all things, or even forensic! And it's nice to have some more (quality) outlet like here in which to share those analytical ideas and beliefs, a place that's a bit more tolerant than one's nearest and dearest, or random victims in the pub/shop/on the bus/in work/in the waiting room etc. In terms of sport I've always been someone who prefers the struggle to the outcome. Winning is of course much nicer than losing but the game itself, the struggle to win/not lose, is what really matters. I was always most disappointed when playing any game, not with losing but with the game being over.
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Post by taggert on Oct 1, 2016 9:16:14 GMT
Fair comment Rashers. Enjoy it and I do hope the better team wins. Every team in Ireland has "scamps" and as you were pointing out over recent pages, it would be nice if brilliance wins out over scampery....
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Post by Mickmack on Oct 1, 2016 10:52:02 GMT
Deep down, I'd hate to see Mayo beat the team we can't beat. I will be quite satisfied to see Dublin beat a team I don't believe have what it takes. Of course my belief is wrong but it's just nice to see one's prejudices borne out. Unlike when Cillian O'Connor kicked that epic point! I have to say 2014 really bugged me and I continue to delight in Mayo's misfortune. This is of course very mean-spirited but if they do win it will be incredible. If they do win I will be very happy for them. They are such a brave team and if they win it will be because they were good enough. There will be some emotion in the stands if they do it. I think Dublin will be better though but all I really want is for a good game. To my mind, by definition, the best team wins. If Mayo are to be the best team in the land heartiest and sincere congratulations to them. I won't be found wanting with the humble pie. Very honest but I cant understand what it was that Mayo did in 2014 to deserve that but shur we are all entitled to our opinions and prejudices. Mayo and Dublin started to put huge work into underage about 12 years ago. There was a good article a few ago about the players both have got from those underage teams but Mayo have 15,000 kids at a certain age group whereas Dublin has 250,000. There is something wonderful about Mayos courage and desperation and effort to win an All Ireland. I will probably shed a tear if they do. It will be a triumph for the human spirit.
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Post by Chinatown on Oct 1, 2016 14:55:21 GMT
Just watching final mins of last day again. Jasus was a great point by co'c, did not get to wind up for that last point properly but still had metres to spare from 40...great score really
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Oct 1, 2016 17:48:21 GMT
I wasn't happy to see Cillian O'Connor miss that. He had to do it all day and I was sorry to see him miss that.
However overrated he is.
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