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Post by clarinman on Jul 5, 2019 9:33:41 GMT
The GAA may have it's faults but the Super 8s is truly super, permutations has dazzled us rabbits, you could cut the atmosphere here in Donegal with a scissors, and that is before my thinking aloud of a green 'n' gold AI final - careful what you wish for and anyway that was tried before and so an elephant in the room called revenge, even Padraig Power can't split us. To spite Padraig here's a crazy bet, well based on logic it must be crazy - €10 double on Kerry for Sam and Clifford for Footballer of the year, pays €750. Or for my Donegal kin and to spite wan Colm O'Rourke with Murphy FOTY pays €960 for your tenner. My logic is that for these teams to win the respective men would probably have to make massive contributions! Now they are social bets and you'd be looking well heading for the final if my wishful thinking was on the button - dazzled rabbits or what? You will not get those odds because a team winning and a player on that team getting POTY are not independent: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)Bally is correct. The bookmaker will use dependent probability when calculating the odds on player of the year. However for the punter these are independent bets. Currently paddy power has Kerry at 13/2 and Clifford at 9/1. A 10 euro double at these odds will yield 750 euro return.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Jul 5, 2019 9:42:53 GMT
Bally is correct. The bookmaker will use dependent probability when calculating the odds on player of the year. However for the punter these are independent bets. Currently paddy power has Kerry at 13/2 and Clifford at 9/1. A 10 euro double at these odds will yield 750 euro return. Are you saying that the odds for POTY are already conditional on that player's team winning the All Ireland?
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Post by clarinman on Jul 5, 2019 10:06:56 GMT
Bally is correct. The bookmaker will use dependent probability when calculating the odds on player of the year. However for the punter these are independent bets. Currently paddy power has Kerry at 13/2 and Clifford at 9/1. A 10 euro double at these odds will yield 750 euro return. Are you saying that the odds for POTY are already conditional on that player's team winning the All Ireland? That is my understanding. 4 of the top 6 in the betting with paddy power for player of the year are from Dublin
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Jul 5, 2019 10:07:58 GMT
Are you saying that the odds for POTY are already conditional on that player's team winning the All Ireland? That is my understanding. 4 of the top 6 in the betting with paddy power for player of the year are from Dublin I am afraid you and Bally are incorrect: "Trying to settle a bet: what odds Kerry to win the All-Ireland AND David Clifford to win POTY. It has been claimed it is 74-1 but I reckon it should be shorter. @askpaddypower The question really is about whether the events are priced independently or dependently but a price would answer that, thank you. "Hi there, our traders have got back to us and quoted a price of 11/1. As the markets are highly related you wouldn't be able to place a bet on the individual prices in a double. Hope this helps."
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Post by clarinman on Jul 5, 2019 10:19:28 GMT
That is my understanding. 4 of the top 6 in the betting with paddy power for player of the year are from Dublin I am afraid you and Bally are incorrect: "Trying to settle a bet: what odds Kerry to win the All-Ireland AND David Clifford to win POTY. It has been claimed it is 74-1 but I reckon it should be shorter. @askpaddypower The question really is about whether the events are priced independently or dependently but a price would answer that, thank you. "Hi there, our traders have got back to us and quoted a price of 11/1. As the markets are highly related you wouldn't be able to place a bet on the individual prices in a double. Hope this helps." That's interesting and explains why Paddy Power makes so much money. Would David Clifford be 9/1 for player of the year if he was playing for Clare?
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Jul 5, 2019 10:28:54 GMT
I am afraid you and Bally are incorrect: "Trying to settle a bet: what odds Kerry to win the All-Ireland AND David Clifford to win POTY. It has been claimed it is 74-1 but I reckon it should be shorter. @askpaddypower The question really is about whether the events are priced independently or dependently but a price would answer that, thank you. "Hi there, our traders have got back to us and quoted a price of 11/1. As the markets are highly related you wouldn't be able to place a bet on the individual prices in a double. Hope this helps." That's interesting and explains why Paddy Power makes so much money. Would David Clifford be 9/1 for player of the year if he was playing for Clare? You're looking at it a little wrong. Of course the POTY odds take into account the teams the players are on. But that doesn't mean the POTY odds are estimated assuming those teams win the All-Ireland. There are two ways to think about this 11-1. The easiest is assume that Kerry win the All-Ireland. Assume you know that. What the probability that Clifford goes on to win POTY. He is arguably the best player on the AI winning team. PP are saying there is about a 50% chance that Clifford goes on to win POTY. The other way says if Clifford wins POTY - 9-1 now - it is highly likely that Kerry will have won the AI - and so the odds move only to 11-1. How the odds change is called Bayes Theorem and is to do with conditional probability. You wouldn't get 9-1 on Clifford winning POTY assuming Kerry won the AI. In any case, the bookies win because the odds aren't in the correct proportion. Add up all the probabilities abd you get less than 100%.
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Post by onlykerry on Jul 5, 2019 12:39:39 GMT
POTY has been from the winning side in the AI Final on 19 of the past 24 finals with the beaten finalists having the POTY on four occassions. Bernard Brogan in 2010 was the only POTY who did not play in the AI Final since 1995.
So POTY is skewed in favour of the winning finalists but is not exclusively from the winners.
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Post by gaelicden on Jul 6, 2019 19:48:27 GMT
Can rte broadcast a match at the same time as a sky broadcast match? If not rte can only show either our match or the tipp v lapis/Dublin hurling match.
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Post by dc84 on Jul 6, 2019 19:52:06 GMT
Can rte broadcast a match at the same time as a sky broadcast match? If not rte can only show either our match or the tipp v lapis/Dublin hurling match. It will be this match you can guarantee it
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Post by taibhse on Jul 6, 2019 20:00:22 GMT
On the potential attendance figures - people need to be aware that the maximum allowed in Killarney for this game is 30,000. This is so for Health and Safety reasons as there is only one game and a greater number of patrons will all converge on the stadium at roughly the same time.
It’s vital that our supporters get their tickets sorted as soon as possible. The lads deserve our full support, no excuses.
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Post by glengael on Jul 6, 2019 20:11:54 GMT
When will tickets go on sale I wonder?
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diego
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,099
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Post by diego on Jul 6, 2019 20:12:32 GMT
Anyone know when tickets will be available?? Had a look at tickets.ie which lists the 3 other group games and has them all to go on sale at 10am Monday morning. Kerry game not mentioned for some reason.
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diego
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,099
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Post by diego on Jul 6, 2019 20:20:52 GMT
On the potential attendance figures - people need to be aware that the maximum allowed in Killarney for this game is 30,000. This is so for Health and Safety reasons as there is only one game and a greater number of patrons will all converge on the stadium at roughly the same time. . Could we not get Liam O'Connor on the bill? Or if it needs to be an actual game, could ask Crokes and the Mary's if they'd play their county league game in there, just to keep the H & S people happy.
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Post by royalkerryfan on Jul 6, 2019 20:22:09 GMT
Mayo will be buzzing after that performance. It'll be a big task for our boys but its the fixture the super 8s are all about. Lets get as many Kerry fans out as we can. Mayo will invade Killarney its our home ground lets make it count. Plus i expect the green & gold not that other yolk.
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trevor73
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Post by trevor73 on Jul 6, 2019 20:27:51 GMT
I can't see where it is being broadcast RTE have Dublin Cork and Sky are not showing us Surely Mayo Kerry is the tie everyone wants to see
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Post by john4 on Jul 6, 2019 20:30:55 GMT
There was no good reason for us having to wear the brown jerseys for the league final. Mayo were wearing their alternative blue jerseys so wouldn't have clashed with our green and gold one anyway. I think it was a decision by our own purely for marketing reasons to promote sales of it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 20:35:55 GMT
I would be pretty sure RTÉ will show it. With only 30k capacity, it will be a sell out for sure.
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Post by ballhopper34 on Jul 6, 2019 20:39:08 GMT
So Mayo come visiting Donie Buckley for the third time this year. And Donie might get two home games in Ennis if Clare beat Meath.
And Stephen Rochford will return to Castlebar with Donegal...that could be fun.
Not much happening in the other group.
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trevor73
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Post by trevor73 on Jul 6, 2019 20:40:34 GMT
It's on Sunday of course, my sky planner only goes to Saturday and I thought it was that day
I'd be fearful of mayo. Theyve bullied us before and are far more experienced. Our porous defence wories me if mayo run at us. We cant let Aidan O Se run the show. If we break even at midfield we should have the better forwards buts a game I fear. Mayo with momentum are hard to stop, this is a defining moment for this kerry team.
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kot
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Post by kot on Jul 6, 2019 20:41:28 GMT
I would be fully confident if it wasnt for the midfield question.
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Post by royalkerryfan on Jul 6, 2019 20:53:33 GMT
I would be fully confident if it wasnt for the midfield question. David Moran missed the league final and played no football upto the Munster final. I think we can break even in there.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Jul 6, 2019 21:11:38 GMT
COME ON THE KINGDOM
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Jul 6, 2019 21:11:55 GMT
Cutting edge analysis as ever
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Post by Kingdomson on Jul 6, 2019 21:15:56 GMT
There was some right cynical stuff going on in that Mayo VS Galway game this evening and the TV cameras didn’t it justice, i wouldn’t doubt it for a second. Some of the stuff on camera was bad enough, so imagine what was going on off the ball and off camera. Of course there were two sides involved but Mayo’s game management was very clever and they had every trick in the book off. Aidan O’Se made a deliberate kung fu leg trip look like an accidental clash of legs at one stage - all very amusing of course until it’s one of our own, which it will be next Sunday. Fitzgerald stadium like it or not will be no place for gentlemen next Sunday. Young or old it dosen’t matter, nice guys need not apply. Mayo are going to unleash the dogs of war, are we ready?
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Post by dc84 on Jul 6, 2019 21:19:23 GMT
Thought Durcan was very good tonight as was mcloughlin, match ups will be interesting can't wait going to be a long week...
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Jul 6, 2019 21:22:45 GMT
There was some right cynical stuff going on in that Mayo VS Galway game this evening and the TV cameras didn’t it justice, i wouldn’t doubt it for a second. Some of the stuff on camera was bad enough, so imagine what was going on off the ball and off camera. Of course there were two sides involved but Mayo’s game management was very clever and they had every trick in the book off. Aidan O’Se made a deliberate kung fu leg trip look like an accidental clash of legs at one stage - all very amusing of course until it’s one of our own, which it will be next Sunday. Fitzgerald stadium like it or not will be no place for gentlemen next Sunday. Young or old it dosen’t matter, nice guys need not apply. Mayo are going to unleash the dogs of war, are we ready? Time for some pups to become dogs?!
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Post by hatchetman on Jul 6, 2019 21:23:27 GMT
Kerry are surprisingly hot favourites, 15/8 on, Mayo 15/8 against, Draw 15/2
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Hicser
Senior Member
Posts: 382
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Post by Hicser on Jul 6, 2019 21:25:01 GMT
Mayo were extremely cynical, they fouled Galway far out the field several times. This stopped numerous Galway attacks, there was several black card instances. We need our pundits to highlight this, hopefully Tomás will raise it on the Sunday Game. I thought Aiden O'Shea was hugely influential, I'm wondering could Jack do a man marking job like he did to Fenton in Tralee,
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Post by athletics on Jul 6, 2019 21:26:55 GMT
Will seats be allocated in the stand do you think or will it be unreserved seating? Hopefully Kerry supporters will come out in big numbers and support this young Kerry team. I am afraid Kerry will be wearing the gold jerseys as the rule is both counties change when there is a clash of colours.
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Post by Kingdomson on Jul 6, 2019 21:27:36 GMT
I would be fully confident if it wasnt for the midfield question. David Moran missed the league final and played no football upto the Munster final. I think we can break even in there. Moreover, if we see a Jack Barry play with a bit of temper and look less apologetic for being there - talent is not an issue. Not one step back, Come on the Kingdom!
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