|
Post by The16thMan on Mar 19, 2023 11:52:54 GMT
So Kerry have something to play for going into the last league game... Beat Galway and they've a decent chance of reaching a league final. I think Jack should be looking to reach that final as Kerry will need that extra competitive game. Especially in Croke Park. League Finals aside however, this will be a tough task. Anything short of their best and Kerry will struggle here. Galway have only been beaten in 1 game and that was a last gasp point defeat to Roscommon. Matthew Tierney is probably the most inform player in Division 1 at the moment and is starting to really reach his potential. He will need to be tracked I feel, probably would have been a perfect match up for Stefan Okunbor if he hadn't been injured. Kerrys conversion rate has only been about 55% so far in this league and that will need dramatic improvement if we are to win in Salthill, Galway will get bodies back and defend in numbers. It is encouraging to have nearly everyone from the AI Final XV back on the pitch, we are only short SOB and Brian B so we have 12 players (including Morans retirement) from that team. It is too close to call in my opinion, especially with Kerrys brutal away record so far in 2023, I'd be hoping for a win rather than expecting one in this case but hopefully the lads can deliver.
|
|
|
Post by colinsworth1 on Mar 19, 2023 12:14:47 GMT
Yes dealing with Matthew Tierney is key There’s hasn’t been a better footballer /shooter seen this year so far anywhere Need to up our game at midfield to have a shot as Galway are well equipped at 8 and 9 .
|
|
Jo90
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,687
|
Post by Jo90 on Mar 19, 2023 15:59:46 GMT
Permutations are for Kerry to qualify for league final: 1. Beat Galway by any score as long as neither Roscommon nor Tyrone win. 2. Beat Galway by 3 points if Tyrone or Roscommon win by 5 or less points. 3. If Roscommon or Tyrone win by 6+, Kerry's margin of victory needs to be a minimum of 2 less than theirs. (Could qualify by being 3 less, but then goes to points scored, which Tyrone lead Kerry by 3 and Kerry lead Roscommon by 8)
|
|
peanuts
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,857
|
Post by peanuts on Mar 19, 2023 16:14:01 GMT
Permutations are for Kerry to qualify for league final: 1. Beat Galway by any score as long as neither Roscommon nor Tyrone win. 2. Beat Galway by 3 points if Tyrone or Roscommon win by 5 or less points. 3. If Roscommon or Tyrone win by 6+, Kerry's margin of victory needs to be a minimum of 2 less than theirs. (Could qualify by being 3 less, but then goes to points scored, which Tyrone lead Kerry by 3 and Kerry lead Roscommon by 8) Don’t we have to beat Galway by 4 to go ahead of them in terms of points difference (if Tyrone or Roscommon win too). The score Beo app is showing Galway as plus 11 and we’re plus 4.
|
|
Jo90
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,687
|
Post by Jo90 on Mar 19, 2023 16:42:49 GMT
Permutations are for Kerry to qualify for league final: 1. Beat Galway by any score as long as neither Roscommon nor Tyrone win. 2. Beat Galway by 3 points if Tyrone or Roscommon win by 5 or less points. 3. If Roscommon or Tyrone win by 6+, Kerry's margin of victory needs to be a minimum of 2 less than theirs. (Could qualify by being 3 less, but then goes to points scored, which Tyrone lead Kerry by 3 and Kerry lead Roscommon by 8) Don’t we have to beat Galway by 4 to go ahead of them in terms of points difference (if Tyrone or Roscommon win too). The score Beo app is showing Galway as plus 11 and we’re plus 4. Galway are +10. Won games by 6, 3 and 2, lost by 1 and 2 draws.
|
|
peanuts
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,857
|
Post by peanuts on Mar 19, 2023 16:50:10 GMT
Don’t we have to beat Galway by 4 to go ahead of them in terms of points difference (if Tyrone or Roscommon win too). The score Beo app is showing Galway as plus 11 and we’re plus 4. Galway are +10. Won games by 6, 3 and 2, lost by 1 and 2 draws. Thanks Jo. Score Beo table wrong so. Unlikely we’ll beat Galway by 3 points or more the way we’re playing at the moment. Not finishing strong, may be due to lack of fitness. Likely that one of Tyrone or Roscommon will win next week.
|
|
|
Post by gaelicden on Mar 19, 2023 17:17:10 GMT
The points table (once Mayo beat Donegal as is the current expected outcome)
Mayo 10 pts Galway 8pts Kerry 6pts Tyrone 6pts Roscommon 6pts Armagh 5pts Monaghan 4pts Donegal 3pts
Trying to whack my head with these permutations. From the Kerry perspective:
Mayo are in the league final Donegal can't catch Kerry, and are relegated anyway due to head to head record with Armagh.
The last final place: Galway Kerry Tyrone Roscommon
Next week's fixtures: Galway v Kerry Roscommon v Donegal Mayo v Monaghan Tyrone v Armagh
The questions: Donegal relegated, will they go out and play with pride? Roscommon, do they want to play Mayo in the league final knowing that they're playing Mayo in the championship the following week?
The Mayo v Monaghan game is important too. Do Mayo really want to win the league and will they rest up players next week? Monaghan know that a win could keep them up.
Tyrone v Armagh is a real humdinger. Tyrone win and they could make the final. Armagh (can't make the final due to Galway on 8 points) know that if they lose and Monaghan win they're down, so you'd expect Armagh to be well up for it.
The certainties: For Galway it's simple, draw or win and they're through. For us it's as described above in this thread.
Mathematically we're safe from relegation as long as we don't get hammered and Monaghan don't pull off a big win. It would also require Roscommon and/or Tyrone to lose also and and not destroy their scoring difference on us in the process. Otherwise it would come down to head to head (which we have on Monaghan).
And a bonus permutation, if Dublin lose to Louth next week, Louth will be promoted with Derry to Div. 1 for 2024 based on their head to head vs Dublin. Otherwise a draw or win will suffice for the Dubs.
|
|
|
Post by clarinman on Mar 19, 2023 17:40:56 GMT
The points table (once Mayo beat Donegal as is the current expected outcome) Mayo 10 pts Galway 8pts Kerry 6pts Tyrone 6pts Roscommon 6pts Armagh 5pts Monaghan 4pts Donegal 3pts Trying to whack my head with these permutations. From the Kerry perspective: Mayo are in the league final Donegal can't catch Kerry, and are relegated anyway due to head to head record with Armagh. The last final place: Galway Kerry Tyrone Roscommon Next week's fixtures: Galway v Kerry Roscommon v Donegal Mayo v Monaghan Tyrone v Armagh The questions: Donegal relegated, will they go out and play with pride? Roscommon, do they want to play Mayo in the league final knowing that they're playing Mayo in the championship the following week? The Mayo v Monaghan game is important too. Do Mayo really want to win the league and will they rest up players next week? Monaghan know that a win could keep them up. Tyrone v Armagh is a real humdinger. Tyrone win and they could make the final. Armagh (can't make the final due to Galway on 8 points) know that if they lose and Monaghan win they're down, so you'd expect Armagh to be well up for it. The certainties: For Galway it's simple, draw or win and they're through. For us it's as described above in this thread. Mathematically we're safe from relegation as long as we don't get hammered and Monaghan don't pull off a big win. It would also require Roscommon and/or Tyrone to lose also and and not destroy their scoring difference on us in the process. Otherwise it would come down to head to head (which we have on Monaghan). And a bonus permutation, if Dublin lose to Louth next week, Louth will be promoted with Derry to Div. 1 for 2024 based on their head to head vs Dublin. Otherwise a draw or win will suffice for the Dubs. Great summary Gaelicden. I would guess that Mayo will rest their headliners against Monaghan next weekend as they are out again the following 2 weekends. The interesting one is Galway. Do they want to play Mayo in a league final given they will probably meet in a Connacht semi a few weeks later? For Kerry's sake, I hope Galway go for it. We need to put up a big performance away from home. This could be our last game against a top team until the all Ireland quarter final. If we win Munster, Sligo or Leitrim will be number 2 seed in our round robin group. The number 3/4 seeds could also be weak depending on the draw.
|
|
horsebox77
Fanatical Member
Our trees & mountains are silent ghosts, they hold wisdom and knowledge mankind has long forgotten.
Posts: 2,029
|
Post by horsebox77 on Mar 19, 2023 17:42:39 GMT
Looking ahead, to Sunday, this could in all probability be our final competitive game until championship football, alarmingly no new player has copperfastened a starting berth in my opinion, in that regard I'm disappointed in the lack of game time for O'Donoghue, Casey and Buckley.
For the trip to Galway, it will be interesting to see if Foley is passed fit, if he is absent the question arises does Tadgh revert back to full back, does Casey come in as a direct replacement? if Tadgh reverts to three, in Breen's and O'Beaglaoich's absence we don't have adequate cover for sic. We actually don't have the great panel we think and are missing a few versatile players, the likes of Beaglaoich, Breen and Crowley have that versality. Actually on that point where is Gavin Crowley.
Might found left of center, but as a mate alluded to last night, Paudie could be considered as an option at six.
Anyway, for Galway, I expect Diarmuid to start with the Dingle man falling back, Jason's fitness or absence may require a reshuffle - I also expect to see Killian starting and Paul getting more game time... figuring out on how to release DC from three markers may be the biggest challenge, although I'm a fan of having your best forward closes to goal, often bringing out to space to avoid or nullify sweepers may have to be considered before the year is out.
|
|
mike70
Senior Member
Posts: 763
|
Post by mike70 on Mar 19, 2023 22:26:37 GMT
With the new format this year for the championship, teams may be less worried about provincial titles, so I expect teams to be competitive and all out next week.
|
|
|
Post by kingdomkerry on Mar 19, 2023 23:28:05 GMT
This is effectively a semi final.
|
|
Jo90
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,687
|
Post by Jo90 on Mar 20, 2023 0:30:56 GMT
I'd nearly take a draw at this stage. Even though the league doesn't matter too much, it'd be bad for morale to end the league with a 100% losing record away from home.
|
|
kerryexile
Fanatical Member
Whether you believe that you can, or that you can't, you are right anyway.
Posts: 1,119
|
Post by kerryexile on Mar 20, 2023 0:38:59 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if Galway win next week. The main reason being that Jack has more to manage than the team. He must also manage their their exposure during these "blocks" of training. It would appear from Saturday night that they are still working hard. The goal always was to secure Division 1 status and then slip away into obscurity. The last thing Kerry needs now, while trying to catch up to other teams, is a final in Croke Park against a Mayo team that it appears has been training since September. Keep Mayo sweating until the summer, let Galway be the fodder.
|
|
|
Post by homerj on Mar 20, 2023 8:08:43 GMT
This is effectively a semi final. Yes but we can win it and not qualify as could have or 4 teams on 8. Win it and see where it takes us. I reckon will be a high scoring game though of course conditions will tell alot
|
|
|
Post by john4 on Mar 20, 2023 8:28:08 GMT
I like that there's an element of pressure in our last few league matches. Keeps fellas honest and trying.
|
|
|
Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 20, 2023 9:52:32 GMT
Fascinating league,
3 losses and yet we could make a league final.
I'm at a loss as to why lads would not a league final when we have Tipp or Waterford after that.
You can be sure lads would like to make amends against Mayo with a strong 15 than in Castlebar.
Might take the wind out of their sails aswell.
From I've seen of Galway they've been good without being great. I'm sure they'll want to beat us after last year but I see Kerry getting our first away win on Sunday.
|
|
|
Post by homerj on Mar 20, 2023 11:20:52 GMT
we are surely more than likely looking over the shoulder at a relegation battle, dont expect us to win at all on sunday, we just are not playing well enough to beat this Galway team who are flying. home advantage is huge in the league...teams are travelling that morning and not getting into gear at all.
whats the worst scenario that needs to happen, for us to be relegated? lost by 8 or 9 points and Monaghan hammer a second string Mayo?
|
|
|
Post by homerj on Mar 20, 2023 11:24:26 GMT
actually on topic about home/away and the advantage of havin 4 games at home as opposed to 3..seen one great suggestion - 3 games home, 3 away and then a round played off in Croke Park over one common weekend or even just seperate 1 off games each week.
imagine a Tyrone V Mayo and Kerry v Galway double header for example some weekend on a saturday, with the other 4 teams playing each other the following day.
|
|
Jo90
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,687
|
Post by Jo90 on Mar 20, 2023 11:33:54 GMT
we are surely more than likely looking over the shoulder at a relegation battle, dont expect us to win at all on sunday, we just are not playing well enough to beat this Galway team who are flying. home advantage is huge in the league...teams are travelling that morning and not getting into gear at all. whats the worst scenario that needs to happen, for us to be relegated? lost by 8 or 9 points and Monaghan hammer a second string Mayo? For Kerry to get relegated: - Kerry to lose and Monaghan win. - A 20 point swing in points difference between Kerry losing and Monaghan winning. - Armagh are on 5 points so they need to get at least a draw away to Tyrone. - Presuming Monaghan win, then either Roscommon must lose or Tyrone must lose or draw, so that a 3rd team ends on 6 pts which brings points difference into play instead of head-to-head. Probability of Kerry getting relegated is about 0.1%!
|
|
Jo90
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,687
|
Post by Jo90 on Mar 20, 2023 11:39:23 GMT
actually on topic about home/away and the advantage of havin 4 games at home as opposed to 3..seen one great suggestion - 3 games home, 3 away and then a round played off in Croke Park over one common weekend or even just seperate 1 off games each week. imagine a Tyrone V Mayo and Kerry v Galway double header for example some weekend on a saturday, with the other 4 teams playing each other the following day. Good idea, but instead of Dublin, let somewhere else get the economy boost e.g. Portlaoise.
|
|
kerryboyo
Full Member
Posts: 233
Member is Online
|
Post by kerryboyo on Mar 20, 2023 13:01:42 GMT
I’d go same team but bring DOC for Jack Barry to be honest Barry dan has been playing better
I imagine Jason foley will be fit and if not it’ll be a straight swap with Dylan Casey
|
|
tpo
Senior Member
Posts: 504
|
Post by tpo on Mar 20, 2023 13:55:30 GMT
DOC and Barry Dan wont be in Midfield together, either one or the other with Jack
|
|
|
Post by onlykerry on Mar 20, 2023 15:08:29 GMT
actually on topic about home/away and the advantage of havin 4 games at home as opposed to 3..seen one great suggestion - 3 games home, 3 away and then a round played off in Croke Park over one common weekend or even just seperate 1 off games each week. imagine a Tyrone V Mayo and Kerry v Galway double header for example some weekend on a saturday, with the other 4 teams playing each other the following day. Good idea, but instead of Dublin, let somewhere else get the economy boost e.g. Portlaoise. Be careful what you wish for .... marketing boffins might decide to take one round overseas as a games promotion exercise with a double header (hurling and football) round in London, New York, Dubai etc. All in the name of growing the overseas game and market.
|
|
|
Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 20, 2023 16:06:28 GMT
Good idea, but instead of Dublin, let somewhere else get the economy boost e.g. Portlaoise. Be careful what you wish for .... marketing boffins might decide to take one round overseas as a games promotion exercise with a double header (hurling and football) round in London, New York, Dubai etc. All in the name of growing the overseas game and market. I always felt the GAA missed a trick not rotating New York and London between the provincial championships. Wouldn't a trip to either have been class.
|
|
|
Post by Whosinmidfield on Mar 20, 2023 16:27:47 GMT
DOC and Barry Dan wont be in Midfield together, either one or the other with Jack You’re right Jack will pick Jack Barry as he is now the most experienced midfielder in the panel but it’s not based on performances. I’d also like to see how a Barry Dan Diarmuid O’Connor partnership would perform.
|
|
|
Post by southward on Mar 20, 2023 19:46:55 GMT
actually on topic about home/away and the advantage of havin 4 games at home as opposed to 3..seen one great suggestion - 3 games home, 3 away and then a round played off in Croke Park over one common weekend or even just seperate 1 off games each week. imagine a Tyrone V Mayo and Kerry v Galway double header for example some weekend on a saturday, with the other 4 teams playing each other the following day. Was that suggestion from a Dub by any chance? They'd love that alright, 4 home games every year.
|
|
|
Post by Kingdomson on Mar 20, 2023 20:05:20 GMT
Straight up, I have not been impressed at all by Kerry so far in this league who have mixed the very bad with the functional at best most of the time. Now we have seen some good moments in games but it's been far too limited. Terrace Talk on Radio Kerry this evening was a bit of a whine fest as the lads bemoaned the style of play and mass defences most sides now impose (I turned it off early). Well then how come Mayo are running amuck and playing some fantastic football at the moment against the same style of play we've been facing most weeks? Some are good at making excuses down these parts when perhaps a bit of self reflection would be better.
Now I have been impressed with Galway's attitude in this league and football despite some departures and injury losses and after losing an All Ireland final they have not been feeling sorry for themselves or using excuses. Indeed they have seemingly built some good squad depth since the Al final and I think Eamonn Fitzmaurice summed them up well today in the Irish Examiner.
We all know Galway tested Kerry ferociously in the All Ireland final and probably won the midfield battle overall that day but lost that game in the last five minutes with a crucial free decision especially swinging the contest decisively our way. It's not often you lose midfield and win an All Ireland final but that's how good David Clifford's performance was. I still expect the Galway midfield to be too strong for Kerry next Sunday and in Salthill they will be gunning for some payback after the AI final. Based on the evidence so far in this league - Galway to win next Sunday.
|
|
exiled
Senior Member
Posts: 307
|
Post by exiled on Mar 20, 2023 20:39:10 GMT
The only way I can see Kerry beating Galway is if Joyce doesn't want to play Mayo in the final. Obviously with their championship starting earlier and a possible match against Mayo 4 weeks later they are further ahead in fitness etc but the biggest deciding reason for me is our defence this year. We are giving up too many scoring chances and Morley protecting the D seems to have been last years news.
|
|
Jo90
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,687
|
Post by Jo90 on Mar 20, 2023 22:09:43 GMT
Straight up, I have not been impressed at all by Kerry so far in this league who have mixed the very bad with the functional at best most of the time. Now we have seen some good moments in games but it's been far too limited. Terrace Talk on Radio Kerry this evening was a bit of a whine fest as the lads bemoaned the style of play and mass defences most sides now impose (I turned it off early). Well then how come Mayo are running amuck and playing some fantastic football at the moment against the same style of play we've been facing most weeks? Some are good at making excuses down these parts when perhaps a bit of self reflection would be better. Now I have been impressed with Galway's attitude in this league and football despite some departures and injury losses and after losing an All Ireland final they have not been feeling sorry for themselves or using excuses. Indeed they have seemingly built some good squad depth since the Al final and I think Eamonn Fitzmaurice summed them up well today in the Irish Examiner. We all know Galway tested Kerry ferociously in the All Ireland final and probably won the midfield battle overall that day but lost that game in the last five minutes with a crucial free decision especially swinging the contest decisively our way. It's not often you lose midfield and win an All Ireland final but that's how good David Clifford's performance was. I still expect the Galway midfield to be too strong for Kerry next Sunday and in Salthill they will be gunning for some payback after the AI final. Based on the evidence so far in this league - Galway to win next Sunday. I'm pretty sure statistically Kerry won the midfield battle v Galway in the AI final. From a kickout point of view that is. Galway midfield did a lot more damage from an attacking point of view.
|
|
|
Post by sullyschoice on Mar 20, 2023 23:05:13 GMT
Is Paddy Tally still involved with the set up
|
|