Post by givehimaball on May 1, 2020 15:20:01 GMT
DontFoul posted the data below on kickouts for the top teams yesterday.
No surprise to see what I had thought for a good while in terms of the quality of the Kerry kickout. We weren't that far behind Dublin in terms of the basic raw numbers in terms of winning posession from our own kickouts, but the difference in quality of the possession we were winning from kickouts meant that Dublin were doing far better in terms of getting scores from their own kickouts. For every 100 kickouts Dublin took they won 85 (84.88) possessions compared to Kerry winning 77 possessions (a difference of 8 possessions). However Dublin ended up scoring 39 points from these 100 of their own kickouts compared to Kerry only scoring 20 points from these 100 own kickouts. That's a difference of 19 points per 100 own kickouts.
Assuming a team has 20 kickouts per game (this is probably on the conservative side for the average number of kickouts in the championship) Dublin would end up scoring nearly 4 points more every game compared to Kerry off kickouts (20 * 0.39 = 7.8 points versus 20 * 0.20 = 4 points; a difference of 3.8)
In terms of GAA stats in relation to kickouts, I think this one of "points per own kickout" - is probably a long bit ahead of the more simple "own kickouts won" in terms of comparing the quality of kickouts between teams. It's really no surprise to see Cluxton and Dublin so far ahead of the other top teams, as it's clear that Dublin have clearly worked not just on getting the ball to the first receiver from the kickout but on providing him with options to move the ball on. Far too often with Kerry's kickouts it has looked as if this [providing an integrated option to move the ball on as part of a specific kickout routines] hasn't been part of the kickout planning at all. Watching Kerry's kickouts, it felt like the emphasis on kickout was just to get it to an individual player and let him sort it out from there. There seemed to be very little done in terms of the movement of the non-receiving players in terms of providing quality support options/moving into position to get the 2nd ball/players moving into defensive positions in case things went wrong with the kickout. Everything just seemed ad hoc in terms of the movement of the other players beside the receiver.
The fact that Dublin had the same difference in terms of net points per kickout whether they went short or long indicates to me that Kerry's issue wasn't a case of going short too often (as the hoof it down the pitch merchants were trying to suggest)
Dublin scored 0.47 points per own short kickout; Kerry scored 0.31 points per own short kickout - a gap of 0.16.
Dublin scored 0.27 points per own long kickout; Kerry scored 0.10 points per own long kickout - a gap of 0.17.
Overall Dublin scored 0.39 points per own kickout; Kerry scored 0.20 points per own kickout - a gap of 0.19.
These figures would suggest it's not the length that matters but the quality of the kickout.
Dublin went short 59% of the time compared to Kerry going short 50% of the time.
The fact that the team that went short the most Dublin (59% of the time) had the highest points per own kickout 0.39 compared to the team that went short the least Galway (31% of the time) had the lowest point per kickout 0.18
[It is worth remembering that short here is defined as not going past the 45 metre line. I would really have liked to see how figures would look if the mid-range kickouts were included in this break-down - from what I have observed I really wouldn't be surprised if this was the area where Dublin had the biggest advantage of all as from simply viewing games this is an area where Dublin/Cluxton consistently do better than all the other GAA teams; especially as regards the quality of the possession - picking out players consistenly with go-forward quality ball is what I would say Cluxton does better than any of the other GAA keepers.]
What does this mean for Kerry? Basically it means that Kerry should be doing serious coaching/training work on this area to close the gap much as possible. From what I've seen of Comerford - [Cluston's understudy] I don't see Dublin efficiency in this area decreasing any time soon, so it's up to Kerry management to close this scoring gap as much as possible. Whether that means more hours spent practising kickouts, more time spent watching game footage of Dublin, different goal-keeping coaching, different goal-keepers, everything has to be on the table.
Some other random thoughts - no surprise to see Galway at the bottom of the list alongside Kerry - their kickouts under Walsh were woeful. The fact that 61% of their kickouts went long definitely seems to back up the notion that they had very little in the way of a kickout strategy. Based on what little I saw of Galway in the league, I wouldn't have been surprised if they will improve these figures significantly under Joyce.
No surprise to see what I had thought for a good while in terms of the quality of the Kerry kickout. We weren't that far behind Dublin in terms of the basic raw numbers in terms of winning posession from our own kickouts, but the difference in quality of the possession we were winning from kickouts meant that Dublin were doing far better in terms of getting scores from their own kickouts. For every 100 kickouts Dublin took they won 85 (84.88) possessions compared to Kerry winning 77 possessions (a difference of 8 possessions). However Dublin ended up scoring 39 points from these 100 of their own kickouts compared to Kerry only scoring 20 points from these 100 own kickouts. That's a difference of 19 points per 100 own kickouts.
Assuming a team has 20 kickouts per game (this is probably on the conservative side for the average number of kickouts in the championship) Dublin would end up scoring nearly 4 points more every game compared to Kerry off kickouts (20 * 0.39 = 7.8 points versus 20 * 0.20 = 4 points; a difference of 3.8)
In terms of GAA stats in relation to kickouts, I think this one of "points per own kickout" - is probably a long bit ahead of the more simple "own kickouts won" in terms of comparing the quality of kickouts between teams. It's really no surprise to see Cluxton and Dublin so far ahead of the other top teams, as it's clear that Dublin have clearly worked not just on getting the ball to the first receiver from the kickout but on providing him with options to move the ball on. Far too often with Kerry's kickouts it has looked as if this [providing an integrated option to move the ball on as part of a specific kickout routines] hasn't been part of the kickout planning at all. Watching Kerry's kickouts, it felt like the emphasis on kickout was just to get it to an individual player and let him sort it out from there. There seemed to be very little done in terms of the movement of the non-receiving players in terms of providing quality support options/moving into position to get the 2nd ball/players moving into defensive positions in case things went wrong with the kickout. Everything just seemed ad hoc in terms of the movement of the other players beside the receiver.
The fact that Dublin had the same difference in terms of net points per kickout whether they went short or long indicates to me that Kerry's issue wasn't a case of going short too often (as the hoof it down the pitch merchants were trying to suggest)
Dublin scored 0.47 points per own short kickout; Kerry scored 0.31 points per own short kickout - a gap of 0.16.
Dublin scored 0.27 points per own long kickout; Kerry scored 0.10 points per own long kickout - a gap of 0.17.
Overall Dublin scored 0.39 points per own kickout; Kerry scored 0.20 points per own kickout - a gap of 0.19.
These figures would suggest it's not the length that matters but the quality of the kickout.
Dublin went short 59% of the time compared to Kerry going short 50% of the time.
The fact that the team that went short the most Dublin (59% of the time) had the highest points per own kickout 0.39 compared to the team that went short the least Galway (31% of the time) had the lowest point per kickout 0.18
[It is worth remembering that short here is defined as not going past the 45 metre line. I would really have liked to see how figures would look if the mid-range kickouts were included in this break-down - from what I have observed I really wouldn't be surprised if this was the area where Dublin had the biggest advantage of all as from simply viewing games this is an area where Dublin/Cluxton consistently do better than all the other GAA teams; especially as regards the quality of the possession - picking out players consistenly with go-forward quality ball is what I would say Cluxton does better than any of the other GAA keepers.]
What does this mean for Kerry? Basically it means that Kerry should be doing serious coaching/training work on this area to close the gap much as possible. From what I've seen of Comerford - [Cluston's understudy] I don't see Dublin efficiency in this area decreasing any time soon, so it's up to Kerry management to close this scoring gap as much as possible. Whether that means more hours spent practising kickouts, more time spent watching game footage of Dublin, different goal-keeping coaching, different goal-keepers, everything has to be on the table.
Some other random thoughts - no surprise to see Galway at the bottom of the list alongside Kerry - their kickouts under Walsh were woeful. The fact that 61% of their kickouts went long definitely seems to back up the notion that they had very little in the way of a kickout strategy. Based on what little I saw of Galway in the league, I wouldn't have been surprised if they will improve these figures significantly under Joyce.