|
Post by veteran on Oct 11, 2020 16:15:10 GMT
Ballythefireside.
I echo your sentiments regarding the late Anne O’Mahony. I knew Anne in a previous life. A lady and a professional to her fingertips. Rest In Peace Anne after a life well lived.
|
|
|
Post by taibhse on Oct 11, 2020 17:33:54 GMT
The virus isn't going away. There is no vaccine. Half of the carriers are themselves asymptomatic. Therefore, there is no way of stopping its spread bar either (a) total lockdown forever or (b) testing everyone, every day. These solutions are obviously unfeasible. Therefore the best any government can do is keeping a lid on it. Which means social distancing measures, masks, hygiene, and selective quarantine measures. There is no other way. And society has to arrive at a new normal: on tolerated number of deaths, hospitalizations, and probable lifelong health impairments; balanced against a tolerated infringement of old freedoms. It’s not just a matter of life or death; there are some horrible, frightening side effects that can hit people of all ages. What is becoming clear is that people regard public health workers as some kind of automated slaves; they are practically at the end of their tether.
From what I hear around the county, if you help an opinion poll right now, there would be a fairly sizeable majority in favour of calling off all games until next Spring, and assess the position then. It is going to take a long time to creep out of this.
|
|
|
Post by Ballyfireside on Oct 11, 2020 18:30:23 GMT
Just to correct ballythefireside Monaghan has actually the highest incident rate in the whole of Ireland at 270.40 per hundred thousand. That is well above all other counties, but people love their sport and the consequences to the players don’t matter as long as those people get their fill. If you were following this on here you would see that my views do not warrant such an allegation - now you might say what you did if you weren't following things. Anyway no offence taken and I believe we need to err on the side of caution, no matter how much I miss watching games I wouldn't want anyone to be at risk as a result. We had this debate on a number of occasions and when you look at all the comments, everyone had similar enough views and the message was that safety and welfare is first and we can wait to see football, abstinence will only make the heart fonder and I don't know of anyone who got ill health from not seeing a game, we might fall ill if we lost a big game but that's what it is to be from Kerry, animals for victory we are as one noble man once put it. Stay safe everyone.
|
|
|
Post by Ballyfireside on Oct 11, 2020 18:33:27 GMT
The virus isn't going away. There is no vaccine. Half of the carriers are themselves asymptomatic. Therefore, there is no way of stopping its spread bar either (a) total lockdown forever or (b) testing everyone, every day. These solutions are obviously unfeasible. Therefore the best any government can do is keeping a lid on it. Which means social distancing measures, masks, hygiene, and selective quarantine measures. There is no other way. And society has to arrive at a new normal: on tolerated number of deaths, hospitalizations, and probable lifelong health impairments; balanced against a tolerated infringement of old freedoms. It’s not just a matter of life or death; there are some horrible, frightening side effects that can hit people of all ages. What is becoming clear is that people regard public health workers as some kind of automated slaves; they are practically at the end of their tether. From what I hear around the county, if you help an opinion poll right now, there would be a fairly sizeable majority in favour of calling off all games until next Spring, and assess the position then. It is going to take a long time to creep out of this. Glad someone called it straight, you put if straight and to the point - I was afraid to as some try to pick holes in a general statement.
|
|
|
Post by veteran on Oct 11, 2020 20:52:44 GMT
I notice lately the experts subtly are pivoting a little when discussing the consequences of contracting the virus . One time they were referring to it as “the deadly virus”. This description has been dropped, wisely of course because the fatality rate would not support this description . Up to the age of seventy the survival rate is 99% approx while old codgers like me can hope for a 94% survival rate . Happy out with that thank you.
Now , the experts talk about “long covid”. By that they mean life long viral consequences. There is practically nothing in the reputable medical literature about this. In any case , protracted sequelae would not be peculiar to this virus. Any body who has known an adolescent who had glandular fever will be aware that in some cases the debility arising from that virus’s can last for months , often necessitating postponement of exams etc. Another virus that can cause even severer consequences is the shingles virus. In some cases this virus can cause a a neuralgia so severe that people can become suicidal as a result.
The non fatal consequences of the viruses mentioned in the previous paragraph are well documented, unlike the covid 19 virus .
|
|
|
Post by Mickmack on Oct 11, 2020 21:03:43 GMT
Its a really simple math for me.
2000 cases a day with 2% needing ICU overwhelms ICU beds available.
If we had 2000 ICU beds then everyone would relax a lot more about it.
I am sure the medics would prefer to not to have tell people as young as 60 that they are too old for one of the 300 ICU beds in the country.
I notice rollingstone ignores this inconvenient truth.
|
|
|
Post by Whosinmidfield on Oct 11, 2020 22:09:04 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2020 22:19:19 GMT
Its a really simple math for me. 2000 cases a day with 2% needing ICU overwhelms ICU beds available. If we had 2000 ICU beds then everyone would relax a lot more about it. I am sure the medics would prefer to not to have tell people as young as 60 that they are too old for one of the 300 ICU beds in the country. I notice rollingstone ignores this inconvenient truth. Absolutely. It is all about the numbers. This virus spreads like wildfire. They are getting 1000 cases a day up north, that is the equivalent of 2.5k in the south. No reason why this number cannot get even greater. Only a very small percentage of these would need hospitalization or icu care, that however would be far far too much for the health service to cope.
|
|
|
Post by veteran on Oct 11, 2020 22:22:16 GMT
Please differentiate between a casedemic and a pandemic. I repeat once more case numbers are meaningless.
|
|
|
Post by Mickmack on Oct 11, 2020 22:41:22 GMT
Could another Clifford be the missing piece of Kerry's All-Ireland bid? With Kerry just days away from resuming playing, sports editor Paul Brennan wonders how central to Peter Keane’s 2020 plans and beyond Paudie Clifford will be and what the Fossa man has to offer the county
It's impossible to imagine a more important footballer to Kerry's crusade to win All-Ireland titles in the next decade than David Clifford. He is, without fear of contradiction, the most talented player of his generation, and the one man that Kerry simply cannot be without out if multiple All-Ireland titles are to come to the Kingdom in the next 10 or so years.
And yet, not only might there be a footballer in the county that will prove just as essential to Kerry's quest for the Sam Maguire Cup over the next few years, but that footballer could actually be from the same household as the present Kerry captain.
Paudie Clifford is an exceptionally gifted footballer: not, it must be said, of the same ilk as his younger brother, but cut from the same cloth nonetheless. A couple of years older than 21-year-old David, Paudie's performances for East Kerry in 2019 earned him a call-up to the Kerry senior panel last winter, but an injury and then the Covid-19 pandemic stymied any chance of him pulling on the green and gold jersey at senior level just yet. Is that about to change this month as Kerry resume their National League calendar before heading into the delayed Munster Championship in November?
Another stellar county championship with East Kerry would suggest Clifford the elder has plenty to offer Kerry, and there's a school of thought out there that Paudie could be the missing piece of Kerry's All-Ireland winning jigsaw. It would be mightily unfair - not to mind premature - to start suggesting Clifford might be the missing link for Kerry as they look, first, to topple Dublin off their all-conquering perch, and then set about establishing a new Kerry dynasty for the next decade, but given his performances for East Kerry and his club, Fossa, over the last 18 months, it's getting easier to make a strong case for a second Clifford in the Kerry team going forward.
John Evans, who managed Paudie for a couple of years as Fossa manager, is one such believer. Evans has had Clifford up close with Fossa and he's remained a keen observer of him over the last couple of years with East Kerry. Evans is in no doubt about the player's innate talent, but he knows that training and playing at a more elite level would do wonders for the Fossa man.
"I said it several times that I was anxious that he should have gone in with the (Kerry) under-21s at the time back three or four years ago, but it wasn't to be, but the one thing I've recognised is that when he's playing with better players that he's two (or) three times the player," Evans says. "I'll put it like this: you see a lot of players and they play well with better players. Fine. But he makes good players look better because of his vision, where he puts the ball for them, how he sets them up, and he's the fella that fires the scuds. I could be saying to you 'yeah, he's good enough, he's this or he's that' but this fella makes a good player excellent. He knows where a good player wants the ball, what side he wants it, their weight of it, that type of thing."
Clifford's strengths?
"His vision and his accuracy with the ball, in a nutshell that's it," Evans says unequivocally. "Very few people can do it but he has that. His other strength is that he has an unbelievable engine in him. In other words he can consistently put in those scuds, he can consistently supply excellent ball. He's a durable, hard player."
And his weaknesses, or his 'work-ons' as the buzzword goes?
"I suppose his weaknesses are...when he's with his club, people would say he's a bit fiery, but I haven't seen it all when he moves up (the levels). I've seen him playing with East Kerry for the last two or three years and I've never seen him, you know...," Evans says, almost struggling to find a weakness. "He's a young player but he is maturing, he's twenty-three, twenty-four now. He's at the right age now, and the best of players only mature at twenty-two, twenty-three years of age and I think he has done that. But the best players need that bit of fire in them, of course they do. And if they don't have if you'd wonder are they too mild-mannered or too easy-going or too soft.
"You know, there's a good hard edge to what he does, and what he does he does well. To me he has the lungs of a rhinoceros and the legs of a panther, he travels the field at pace. He also has that ability to increase the pace of a game and also to slow it down. He can kick off five or ten yard sprints, check it back, ten yard sprints, and still be looking to probe and see the inside player who's available for the ball."
Clifford routinely carries no.11 on his back, be it for Fossa or East Kerry, but like all good centre forwards he will visit every square metre of the pitch. Even last Sunday for Fossa - he scored 1-1 - he was back defending like a dervish against Gneeveguilla, quarter-backing the team insofar as he could, while also creating opportunities for brother David and rest of the Fossa forwards.
His best position for Kerry?
"It depends on the game plan that Peter Keane creates," Evans suggests. "Not every style of game is going to suit Paudie Clifford but if you have a game plan where at least one of your forwards is going to be back, and it's normally at least two, then he should be one of them. I think he eases a lot of the pressure of midfielders and half backs in the sense that he can carry the ball for them. Of course, the other thing I must say about him is that he can score. There are very few hard workers who can score points and goals like he can. He would probably have to work on his defensive side of things because when you go back into that area at the highest level you have to be able to defender properly as well.
"If you've got top class inside forwards - and Kerry have lots of them - you need someone to be able to supply them with top quality ball, and that's where I'd see Paudie Clifford role in the team. I think anybody who can supply a good ball to David, whether that's his brother Paudie or anyone else, that's all you need.
"Paudie Clifford will supply the ball to good players whether it is Paul Geaney or James O'Donoghue or whoever. You've exciting forwards there but they need the ball right, the need the ball put into the place where they can hurt the defence. There's nothing worse than guys making runs inside and no ball coming in. Look, it's a huge step up, but I think for what the Kerry forwards need I think he's well, well worth considering and well worth utilising."
|
|
Aodhan
Senior Member
Posts: 792
|
Post by Aodhan on Oct 11, 2020 22:44:34 GMT
Please differentiate between a casedemic and a pandemic. I repeat once more case numbers are meaningless. What we have here is a PCR Pandemic along with all its false positives. Also many of the swab tests has a virus placed on the tip which matches a genetic sequence in Chromosome 6, not surprisingly resulting in false positives. The more testing the more "cases".
|
|
|
Post by Mickmack on Oct 11, 2020 22:49:33 GMT
FRI, 09 OCT, 2020 - 14:18 JOHN FOGARTY Kerry captain David Clifford and his team-mates are preparing for the possibility of a penalty shoot-out in this year’s Championship. The knock-out nature of the competition means more would be riding on such a scenario than the provincial hurling games where there is a qualifier/quarter-final consolation prize for the losers. Both Clifford and Kerry manager Peter Keane have confirmed players have been taking them in training and the former said: “Penalty shoot-outs have been something, I suppose. "One massively positive thing that has come from all of this has been that we have been able to stream games from all around the country. There has been a few interesting penalty shoot-outs, a few goalkeepers made to look like heroes. It is something we will have to be ready for.” Clifford, now studying a masters in PE at UL but at home, laughs that the captaincy this year has amounted to be “the admin of the players’ WhatsApp, that’s about it.” But he said there hasn’t been “a whole pile to it”. “There are plenty of players in the Kerry dressing room who have been around a lot longer than me so I leave them to it. It’s a massive honour and something I am proud of but it’s probably not changed my responsibility too much.” Clifford gave some insight into how Kerry are training safely at their centre of excellence in Currans. “You can't car pool to training which is something I probably miss the most. "I usually travel with Paul (Murphy), Micheál Burns, and Dara Moynihan. You usually have a nice bit of craic, it isn't as enjoyable when (Manchester) United win and we have to listen to Dara. That is another story. “When you get to training, you have no dressing rooms, no showers after training, temperature checks, you have to fill out your questionnaire during the day. It is different but everyone understands the responsibility we have to stay safe and what can happen if we don't.” - This Championship season SuperValu is calling on GAA fans across the country to ‘Support Where You’re From’ by showing their incredible county passion and pride from the safety of their homes and communities. At today’s launch with ambassador David Clifford, SuperValu announced that they are on the hunt to find Ireland’s most devoted and vocal superfans to give them an opportunity to show the country what their county team means to them. Check out www.facebook.com/SuperValuIreland for more information on how you become one of ‘SuperValu’s Superfans’.
|
|
Joxer
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,365
|
Post by Joxer on Oct 12, 2020 9:17:27 GMT
The virus isn't going away. There is no vaccine. Half of the carriers are themselves asymptomatic. Therefore, there is no way of stopping its spread bar either (a) total lockdown forever or (b) testing everyone, every day. These solutions are obviously unfeasible. Therefore the best any government can do is keeping a lid on it. Which means social distancing measures, masks, hygiene, and selective quarantine measures. There is no other way. And society has to arrive at a new normal: on tolerated number of deaths, hospitalizations, and probable lifelong health impairments; balanced against a tolerated infringement of old freedoms. It’s not just a matter of life or death; there are some horrible, frightening side effects that can hit people of all ages. What is becoming clear is that people regard public health workers as some kind of automated slaves; they are practically at the end of their tether. From what I hear around the county, if you help an opinion poll right now, there would be a fairly sizeable majority in favour of calling off all games until next Spring, and assess the position then. It is going to take a long time to creep out of this. I can't see anything I don't agree with in this...unfortunately! We do have to arrive at a new normal at some point. I see the NFL in the USA is applying some technology to protect their players and coaching staff etc but its only one step in many no doubt.. www.wral.com/coronavirus/carolina-panthers-use-uv-light-to-kill-off-coronavirus-in-stadium/19313998/
|
|
|
Post by Seoirse Ui Duic on Oct 12, 2020 9:38:35 GMT
More cases means more people in hospital. More people in hospital means more ICU beds needed. More ICU beds we don't have. We now have deaths every day again and the numbers seem to be rising again all the time. I hate it when people say only death today. 1 death is 1 too many for me. That is a living being, someone's father, someone's brother, someone's sister....a loved person. Any death that can be prevented should be prevented in my opinion. I gave up my business this year so that others are safe. By now I have debts and a large loss in income. I'm really looking forward to see Kerry play again and this year has been very tough not being able to see any games, but if it means putting players, staff and others in harms way I would rather watch the golden years DVD again.
|
|
mossie
Fanatical Member
Posts: 2,566
|
Post by mossie on Oct 12, 2020 22:25:12 GMT
re Paudie Clifford great player but lungs of a rhinocarus legs of a panther!!!
|
|
|
Post by veteran on Oct 13, 2020 9:16:38 GMT
So, in the space of four or five days an Irish Soccer player has a positive result , a negative result and a positive test again! I wonder will this be recorded as a case or as two cases! A member of the back room staff tested positive and then shortly afterwards as negative. Ii is reasonable to assume that this farcical situation is being replicated up and down the country leading to cases and more cases and more cases still.
I have been querying the validity and methodology of these tests for a long while on this forum. I wonder, at his stage and with.emergence of embarrassing situations like the aforementioned, will our obsequious media do their job and start asking probing questions of Dr. Tony and his acolytes or will they continue in the veneration of another of our sacred cows. It is interesting that a lot of people are interested in culling our dairy cows while propagating the cult of sacred cows. This could end badly.
|
|
|
Post by john4 on Oct 13, 2020 11:09:17 GMT
So, in the space of four or five days an Irish Soccer player has a positive result , a negative result and a positive test again! I wonder will this be recorded as a case or as two cases! A member of the back room staff tested positive and then shortly afterwards as negative. Ii is reasonable to assume that this farcical situation is being replicated up and down the country leading to cases and more cases and more cases still. I have been querying the validity and methodology of these tests for a long while on this forum. I wonder, at his stage and with.emergence of embarrassing situations like the aforementioned, will our obsequious media do their job and start asking probing questions of Dr. Tony and his acolytes or will they continue in the veneration of another of our sacred cows. It is interesting that a lot of people are interested in culling our dairy cows while propagating the cult of sacred cows. This could end badly. Never ever change FAI, the undeniable kings of off field sporting entertainment.
|
|
peanuts
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,857
|
Post by peanuts on Oct 13, 2020 12:42:10 GMT
So, in the space of four or five days an Irish Soccer player has a positive result , a negative result and a positive test again! I wonder will this be recorded as a case or as two cases! A member of the back room staff tested positive and then shortly afterwards as negative. Ii is reasonable to assume that this farcical situation is being replicated up and down the country leading to cases and more cases and more cases still. I have been querying the validity and methodology of these tests for a long while on this forum. I wonder, at his stage and with.emergence of embarrassing situations like the aforementioned, will our obsequious media do their job and start asking probing questions of Dr. Tony and his acolytes or will they continue in the veneration of another of our sacred cows. It is interesting that a lot of people are interested in culling our dairy cows while propagating the cult of sacred cows. This could end badly. Never ever change FAI, the undeniable kings of off field sporting entertainment. I wouldn't be as quick to joke. Could just as easily happen to an Inter County Team.
|
|
|
Post by Seoirse Ui Duic on Oct 13, 2020 14:17:07 GMT
Never ever change FAI, the undeniable kings of off field sporting entertainment. I wouldn't be as quick to joke. Could just as easily happen to an Inter County Team. Given how soccer players are kept in a bubble it will happen to inter county teams even faster. In rugby league the kiwi teams moved to Oz for the league and were kept in a bubble there without their family and friends. That way they managed to run the league, but it is incredibly tough on players and families. In the GAA that would be impossible to do. It's Tuesday now and as far as we know this weekend's games are going ahead. I'd be surprised if they do, but if they do I really hope there are no implications as that could be the end of GAA activities for the rest of the year.
|
|
|
Post by pipsqueak01 on Oct 13, 2020 20:19:49 GMT
So, in the space of four or five days an Irish Soccer player has a positive result , a negative result and a positive test again! I wonder will this be recorded as a case or as two cases! A member of the back room staff tested positive and then shortly afterwards as negative. Ii is reasonable to assume that this farcical situation is being replicated up and down the country leading to cases and more cases and more cases still. I have been querying the validity and methodology of these tests for a long while on this forum. I wonder, at his stage and with.emergence of embarrassing situations like the aforementioned, will our obsequious media do their job and start asking probing questions of Dr. Tony and his acolytes or will they continue in the veneration of another of our sacred cows. It is interesting that a lot of people are interested in culling our dairy cows while propagating the cult of sacred cows. This could end badly. Ordinarily, I am content to participate on this forum in a purely observational capacity and I definitely never thought that my first post would occur as a result of a pandemic and not an occurrence on the field. However, the misinformation and the growing sense that we are all experts on an exceptionally complex and controversial topic has become too much for me and readers of this forum are unfortunate enough to be the ones who will endure a cathartic diatribe. As a professional who deals with this issue on a daily basis I will openly admit that all of the answers are not readily available. Veteran, I routinely look forward to your match reviews and enjoy your acumen and analysis in a footballing context. However, your knowledge on the nuances of PCR testing unfortunately is not on a par. The sensitivity of these tests is approximately 70-80%. This means that for every 10 covid patients, 7-8 of them will have covid detected on the first swab. Rather than the embarrassing situation you allude to, it would be in fact expected for a person with active covid 19 to test positive (covid detected) on 2 out of 3 swabs. This is not a fantastic sensitivity unfortunately and hence the advice issued to people who qualify for testing is to continue self isolation even after a negative test until the symptoms have resolved and an extra two days. This is a precaution for the 2-3 people out of every 10 with covid who will test negative on the first swab. The strength of the swab is that if it tells you covid 19 has been detected there is no way it has not been. The only way a false positive can be a factor is through contamination of the sample or mislabelling. I cannot say for certain how often this happens but as they are processed in virology labs used to dealing with PCR samples of other diseases it would be safe to assume this is exceptionally low. The detection of this virus does not necessarily mean that a person is infectious. It may in fact be dead virus from a previous covid infection and hence the practice of self isolation for 10 days and not having to test negative. Recent close contact with a case or active symptoms mean the most likely explanation is current infection however. A lot of people rightly point out that the death rate at present is much lower than it was back in March and April. Again this is a complex issue. The main factor in this is that fact that we picked up about 1/10 cases around Easter time. Not everyone qualified for testing and we also did not have the infrastructure to contact trace and test everyone. Seroprevalence studies would suggest that 5% or so of the Irish population has been exposed which is approximately 250,000 cases. Yet only about 40,000 have been captured. This renders correlations between case fatality rates from March and October relatively meaningless as we are capturing almost all cases at present. We have approximately 280 public ICU beds in this country and when people hear that we have 32 cases of covid 19 in ICU it doesn't seem like that many. Unfortunately our ICUs run above capacity essentially year round. We do not comfortably have the capability for any cases of a new disease not to mind dozens and this will compromise routine/emergency major surgery and the provision of other services. The lethality of this disease thankfully is less than first feared and seems to be of the order of 0.5%. With an attack rate of 80% (we do not know this yet but best estimates seem to suggest it may be this) this would mean 20,000 fatalities. This is assuming that one cannot get infected repeatedly. Of course the rate of 0.5% only remains the case if everyone can receive optimal care. If 2% need ICU and our ICU beds are saturated then the mortality rate would obviously be 2%. This does not take into account the pulmonary fibrosis, heart failure and post covid syndromes that would afflict tens of thousands for years to come. These will not appear in any figures. Staggering this disease as best we can while balancing economic and mental health consequences of harsh measures is not a task I would wish for on my to do list but I cannot abide by people who do not seem to understand the transmission of pandemic viruses or the dangers of saturating hospital services. I will continue to venerate Dr. Tony when it comes to our public health and will keep my veneration for the sacred cow of this forum for footballing matters.
|
|
diego
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,099
|
Post by diego on Oct 13, 2020 21:35:14 GMT
So, in the space of four or five days an Irish Soccer player has a positive result , a negative result and a positive test again! I wonder will this be recorded as a case or as two cases! A member of the back room staff tested positive and then shortly afterwards as negative. Ii is reasonable to assume that this farcical situation is being replicated up and down the country leading to cases and more cases and more cases still. I have been querying the validity and methodology of these tests for a long while on this forum. I wonder, at his stage and with.emergence of embarrassing situations like the aforementioned, will our obsequious media do their job and start asking probing questions of Dr. Tony and his acolytes or will they continue in the veneration of another of our sacred cows. It is interesting that a lot of people are interested in culling our dairy cows while propagating the cult of sacred cows. This could end badly. Ordinarily, I am content to participate on this forum in a purely observational capacity and I definitely never thought that my first post would occur as a result of a pandemic and not an occurrence on the field. However, the misinformation and the growing sense that we are all experts on an exceptionally complex and controversial topic has become too much for me and readers of this forum are unfortunate enough to be the ones who will endure a cathartic diatribe. As a professional who deals with this issue on a daily basis I will openly admit that all of the answers are not readily available. Veteran, I routinely look forward to your match reviews and enjoy your acumen and analysis in a footballing context. However, your knowledge on the nuances of PCR testing unfortunately is not on a par. The sensitivity of these tests is approximately 70-80%. This means that for every 10 covid patients, 7-8 of them will have covid detected on the first swab. Rather than the embarrassing situation you allude to, it would be in fact expected for a person with active covid 19 to test positive (covid detected) on 2 out of 3 swabs. This is not a fantastic sensitivity unfortunately and hence the advice issued to people who qualify for testing is to continue self isolation even after a negative test until the symptoms have resolved and an extra two days. This is a precaution for the 2-3 people out of every 10 with covid who will test negative on the first swab. The strength of the swab is that if it tells you covid 19 has been detected there is no way it has not been. The only way a false positive can be a factor is through contamination of the sample or mislabelling. I cannot say for certain how often this happens but as they are processed in virology labs used to dealing with PCR samples of other diseases it would be safe to assume this is exceptionally low. The detection of this virus does not necessarily mean that a person is infectious. It may in fact be dead virus from a previous covid infection and hence the practice of self isolation for 10 days and not having to test negative. Recent close contact with a case or active symptoms mean the most likely explanation is current infection however. A lot of people rightly point out that the death rate at present is much lower than it was back in March and April. Again this is a complex issue. The main factor in this is that fact that we picked up about 1/10 cases around Easter time. Not everyone qualified for testing and we also did not have the infrastructure to contact trace and test everyone. Seroprevalence studies would suggest that 5% or so of the Irish population has been exposed which is approximately 250,000 cases. Yet only about 40,000 have been captured. This renders correlations between case fatality rates from March and October relatively meaningless as we are capturing almost all cases at present. We have approximately 280 public ICU beds in this country and when people hear that we have 32 cases of covid 19 in ICU it doesn't seem like that many. Unfortunately our ICUs run above capacity essentially year round. We do not comfortably have the capability for any cases of a new disease not to mind dozens and this will compromise routine/emergency major surgery and the provision of other services. The lethality of this disease thankfully is less than first feared and seems to be of the order of 0.5%. With an attack rate of 80% (we do not know this yet but best estimates seem to suggest it may be this) this would mean 20,000 fatalities. This is assuming that one cannot get infected repeatedly. Of course the rate of 0.5% only remains the case if everyone can receive optimal care. If 2% need ICU and our ICU beds are saturated then the mortality rate would obviously be 2%. This does not take into account the pulmonary fibrosis, heart failure and post covid syndromes that would afflict tens of thousands for years to come. These will not appear in any figures. Staggering this disease as best we can while balancing economic and mental health consequences of harsh measures is not a task I would wish for on my to do list but I cannot abide by people who do not seem to understand the transmission of pandemic viruses or the dangers of saturating hospital services. I will continue to venerate Dr. Tony when it comes to our public health and will keep my veneration for the sacred cow of this forum for footballing matters. Just going to reply for the sake of releasing this post from (desktop) probation. Deserves our attention.
|
|
|
Post by Deise Exile on Oct 13, 2020 22:08:23 GMT
any idea of team selection. will we know thursday night? Is David Moran still involved. will peter crowley be back? will jason Foley be full back? Will paudie Clifford be playing
|
|
|
Post by taibhse on Oct 14, 2020 8:30:31 GMT
I would venture to say that the majority of readers would appreciate the ending of this boring muscle war and merciless nit-picking - and to the psychological wearing-down by repetition, a strategy more common in advertising.
|
|
|
Post by ataboy on Oct 14, 2020 9:08:16 GMT
any idea of team selection. will we know thursday night? Is David Moran still involved. will peter crowley be back? will jason Foley be full back? Will paudie Clifford be playing Based on club performances over the last 2 years, Paudie Clifford is too good a player not to be involved to some extent. The biggest issue is his best position is at 11, same as SOS. Could he fit in at wing forward or do you hold him back as an impact sub?
|
|
|
Post by Ballyfireside on Oct 14, 2020 9:31:31 GMT
Ordinarily, I am content to participate on this forum in a purely observational capacity and I definitely never thought that my first post would occur as a result of a pandemic and not an occurrence on the field. However, the misinformation and the growing sense that we are all experts on an exceptionally complex and controversial topic has become too much for me and readers of this forum are unfortunate enough to be the ones who will endure a cathartic diatribe. As a professional who deals with this issue on a daily basis I will openly admit that all of the answers are not readily available. Veteran, I routinely look forward to your match reviews and enjoy your acumen and analysis in a footballing context. However, your knowledge on the nuances of PCR testing unfortunately is not on a par. The sensitivity of these tests is approximately 70-80%. This means that for every 10 covid patients, 7-8 of them will have covid detected on the first swab. Rather than the embarrassing situation you allude to, it would be in fact expected for a person with active covid 19 to test positive (covid detected) on 2 out of 3 swabs. This is not a fantastic sensitivity unfortunately and hence the advice issued to people who qualify for testing is to continue self isolation even after a negative test until the symptoms have resolved and an extra two days. This is a precaution for the 2-3 people out of every 10 with covid who will test negative on the first swab. The strength of the swab is that if it tells you covid 19 has been detected there is no way it has not been. The only way a false positive can be a factor is through contamination of the sample or mislabelling. I cannot say for certain how often this happens but as they are processed in virology labs used to dealing with PCR samples of other diseases it would be safe to assume this is exceptionally low. The detection of this virus does not necessarily mean that a person is infectious. It may in fact be dead virus from a previous covid infection and hence the practice of self isolation for 10 days and not having to test negative. Recent close contact with a case or active symptoms mean the most likely explanation is current infection however. A lot of people rightly point out that the death rate at present is much lower than it was back in March and April. Again this is a complex issue. The main factor in this is that fact that we picked up about 1/10 cases around Easter time. Not everyone qualified for testing and we also did not have the infrastructure to contact trace and test everyone. Seroprevalence studies would suggest that 5% or so of the Irish population has been exposed which is approximately 250,000 cases. Yet only about 40,000 have been captured. This renders correlations between case fatality rates from March and October relatively meaningless as we are capturing almost all cases at present. We have approximately 280 public ICU beds in this country and when people hear that we have 32 cases of covid 19 in ICU it doesn't seem like that many. Unfortunately our ICUs run above capacity essentially year round. We do not comfortably have the capability for any cases of a new disease not to mind dozens and this will compromise routine/emergency major surgery and the provision of other services. The lethality of this disease thankfully is less than first feared and seems to be of the order of 0.5%. With an attack rate of 80% (we do not know this yet but best estimates seem to suggest it may be this) this would mean 20,000 fatalities. This is assuming that one cannot get infected repeatedly. Of course the rate of 0.5% only remains the case if everyone can receive optimal care. If 2% need ICU and our ICU beds are saturated then the mortality rate would obviously be 2%. This does not take into account the pulmonary fibrosis, heart failure and post covid syndromes that would afflict tens of thousands for years to come. These will not appear in any figures. Staggering this disease as best we can while balancing economic and mental health consequences of harsh measures is not a task I would wish for on my to do list but I cannot abide by people who do not seem to understand the transmission of pandemic viruses or the dangers of saturating hospital services. I will continue to venerate Dr. Tony when it comes to our public health and will keep my veneration for the sacred cow of this forum for footballing matters. Just going to reply for the sake of releasing this post from (desktop) probation. Deserves our attention. That is about the best account I have heard and I suppose that it is on here and from a fellow Kerry supporter helps - you certainly clarified a few points I was struggling with so ta for that. That I was also in agreement at the outset is also a factor, i.e. we all like validation. Still my own view is based on my own forensics of the world and I have been around the block. Still I don't entirely rule out Veteran, and nil to do with his peerless match reports - I'd be surprised if the public are told it exactly as it is if only because we wouldn't understand it, but can we trust our medics? I think we can and it appears to me that those who are not affected and so don't see it are less concerned - a natural situation and now not accusing Vet as he has seen a bit more of the world than me. I had experiences myself with public officials and solicitors among others colluding in crime, and it is things like this that has the public doubting what we are being told - if some of our leaders are lying then why trust others? We have issues in Ireland, let he who hasn't sinned cast the first stone, etc, and then the Omerta silence from colonialism - the price we pay here is that justice is denied and we remain divided. Now maybe Vet previously mentioned his grounds for doubt and he might like to tell us again, moreover as we have a genuine wall to bounce our ideas off, if the doc among us will pardon me for comparing him to a hurling wall! Stay safe my fellow Kerry supporters. PS Dr Eamonn Shanahan is in agreement with our Forum doc, so if doctors don't differ we all survive!
|
|
peanuts
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,857
|
Post by peanuts on Oct 14, 2020 12:32:53 GMT
any idea of team selection. will we know thursday night? Is David Moran still involved. will peter crowley be back? will jason Foley be full back? Will paudie Clifford be playing Jack Barry out according to twitter.
|
|
peanuts
Fanatical Member
Posts: 1,857
|
Post by peanuts on Oct 14, 2020 12:34:31 GMT
any idea of team selection. will we know thursday night? Is David Moran still involved. will peter crowley be back? will jason Foley be full back? Will paudie Clifford be playing Based on club performances over the last 2 years, Paudie Clifford is too good a player not to be involved to some extent. The biggest issue is his best position is at 11, same as SOS. Could he fit in at wing forward or do you hold him back as an impact sub? Donaghy recommending in todays Examiner that Paudie Clifford should be at 11 with Seanie Shea midfield and Jack Barry centre back.
|
|
|
Post by yellowbelly on Oct 14, 2020 13:19:20 GMT
Kerry v Monaghan game available on GAA Go for €5 www.gaago.ie/fixture/PL5-20-F-W9AMONAGHAN v KERRY Allianz Football League Division 1 Saturday, 17 October 2020 13:45 (Irish time)
|
|
|
Post by veteran on Oct 14, 2020 14:05:07 GMT
Pipsqueak, I am truly delighted that a professional in the world of covid has joined us. It is important for those of us floundering in the dark to now have an inhouse resource who maybe able to enlighten us on some aspects of this viral condition. I am not being sarcastic or facetious when making this remark but rather I hope to avail of your expertise. So, welcome aboard. I am sure you will enjoy being a participant as opposed to being a lurker.
At the outset I had better issue a warning to those of a nervous disposition and faintness of heart, some misguided souls who still feel that this topic has nothing to do with GAA matters. Move on, this is not for you.
I have a lot of problems with this issue, some of which would be: the hysteria surrounding the lethality of this condition, the undue emphasis on case numbers, the validity of the testing, the morality and effectiveness of lockdowns, school closures, the usefulness of mask wearing and contradictory advice therein etc.
You are right when you say that that the nuance of the PCR test escapes me. Perhaps after our engagement those nuances will become more apparent. So here goes.
Am I right in saying that the man who devised this test said it should not be used as a screening test? If so. why did he have those misgivings. If indeed he had those misgivings , could you clarify if this test is being used to screen people here and elsewhere. I read in the New York Times, albeit not a medical journal, that up to 85% of these could be false positives. Seemingly, these false positives could be generated by over amplification? in the process. I am not sure what that means but I am sure you will explain. It seems that amplification to too high a level, above thirty?, can give false positive readings. Now you suggest that because labs are used to doing this test it is unlikely that inaccuracies will occur. That is reassuring but still think of the mayhem resulting from inaccurate interpretation of mammograms, cervical smear tests and that most mundane of tests , chest xrays. No room for complacency I fear. Another difficulty apparently is that the test can detect fragments of the virus which now are inactive. Is this latter positive test recorded as a case?
One of my big gripes with this virus is the fear, indeed hysteria, that has been engendered. Some of my acquaintances, long in the tooth now of course, are terrified out of their wits. This is caused by the daily bulletins regarding cases and deaths. If the number of false positives, for various reasons, are as prevalent as some suggest then why is their so much emphasis on cases which only encourage a lot of old folk not so much to take their beds but rather to go under the bed.
We have known for a good while now that we are not dealing with deadly virus at all. Dr. Mike Ryan from WHO says their best guess is that approx 10% of the world population may have been infected. That would be approx 750,000,000. According to WHO approx 1,000,000 worldwide have died from the virus. That would give us a case fatality rate of approx 0.13%. According to the CDC data over the past 10 years in the U.S. the case fatality rate for the seasonal flu is also 0.13%. Really! So this is the extent of the awful pestilence with which we are grappling.
I wish our experts would point out that case numbers are meaningless to a large extent and above all inform people loudly and unambiguously that we are not dealing with anything approaching a deadly disease.
If we are not dealing with a deadly disease then why are we being subjected to economically crippling lockdowns which as the WHO says, in a Damascene conversion, will lead to the poor becoming poorer. Businesses closing down, some never to reopen, people neglecting medical reviews of cancer, heart disease, mental disease etc . Pipsqueak suggests that it is not just mortality rates that should concern us but also morbidity rates arising from this disease. I am sure that is a valid point although it is a little early in the history of the virus to dwell on that fact. However, we do know the catastrophic consequences of neglecting the diagnosis of high blood pressure, heart disease, cancer, diabetes etc resulting from a fear of going near a doctor, hospital all created as a result of the hyperbole attached this virus.
I accept the fear of overloading the hospital system but if we keep throwing people out of work, for spurious reasons I contend, and pari passu increase the number of people on social welfare, then I would fear greatly for our health system, not to mention the luxury of ICU beds.
Perhaps, people should acquaint themselves with the recent Great Barrington Declaration. Of course you are unlikely to read about it in the lamestream media. Professors from Oxford, Stanford and Harvard got together and suggested how we should deal with this problem. Basically , they suggest we shield the elderly and vulnerable, with special emphasis on care homes etc and allow the young and healthy go about their business as normal. Instinctively, it appeals to me on a health care level and on an economy level. A case of morality and science pointing in the same direction. Maybe our medical brethren here should study it.
Must sign out, exhausted after this effort.
|
|
|
Post by greengold35 on Oct 14, 2020 18:47:15 GMT
any idea of team selection. will we know thursday night? Is David Moran still involved. will peter crowley be back? will jason Foley be full back? Will paudie Clifford be playing Jack Barry out according to twitter. I understand all players with the exception of Jack Barry are available - Jack fractured a bone in his hand in the Na Gaeil/Gaeltacht 1/4 final a few weeks ago - think he will be available for Donegal game. Interestingly heard that if Monaghan is moved to Level 4 restrictions by the Gov that game will be switched to a neutral venue.
|
|