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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 17:14:34 GMT
Maybe its the golden years team that is overhyped. Connacht went without an All Ireland for 32 years prior to 1998. They was a war in Ulster for roughly the same period. Having said that, since 2014 Kerry have lost many close games in the championship that we 'coulda shoulda' won. Have we? I can only think of 2, last year against Tyrone and the Munster SF against Cork in 2020. I'm not sure you could say we should've won any of the other games we lost. You could include the 2019 drawn game alright I suppose. I would say Kerry could have won their knockout game in every year... except maybe were Kerry clearly second best to Mayo in 2017? Bar 2018 also. That was some stinker vs Galway.
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 18:08:34 GMT
Those odds would make Kerry strong favourites. By my calculations, it translates into an approx. 59% chance of Kerry win, 10% chance of draw, 30% chance Mayo win. There is a missing percentage point due to rounding error. Someone who knows only a little about odds will say, are Mayo not a 33% chance? They are according to 2/1 odds, but that difference, between this 33% and 30%, is the bookies' cut. Without this cut, the way it works is 2/1 means that Mayo win once and not win twice... that is they win one out of three times... approx. 33%. Similarly 8/1 on the draw means a draw once, and not a draw eight times... that is a draw once in nine games approx. 11%. Kerry 8/15 means Kerry win 15 times and not win eight times... so they win 15/23 approx. 65% times. It means, roughly, that if you put down €109 of bets on this match: €65 on a Kerry win, €11 on the draw, and €33 on Mayo, you will get back about €100 if Kerry win, €99 on the draw, and €99 if Mayo win. So the bookies' cut is, in the long run, about 10% of all bets on the outcome of the match.
Thank you for explaining that Annascual, as you can tell something like Cheltenham would pass me by.
Beware the man of many vices, though not as much as the man with none - I find that as good a creed as any
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 18:16:35 GMT
How many of the above side that beat Dublin in the 2021 championship are unavailable for sunday... I know Tommy Conroy is gone. Is Brendan Harrison out too Yes, Harrison is definitely out, did his ACL last week. Hennelly has missed the last 2 games for Mayo and I haven't seen McLaughlin since the Sigerson, not sure what's the story with him. I've heard Diarmuid O’Connor and Paddy Durcan are doubts as well due to hamstring trouble, in fact I saw somewhere a couple of days ago claims Mayo could be without 7 or 8 including long term absentee Cillian.
How much any of that is true is any ones guess I suppose.
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exiled
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Post by exiled on Mar 31, 2022 18:34:49 GMT
Yes, Harrison is definitely out, did his ACL last week. Hennelly has missed the last 2 games for Mayo and I haven't seen McLaughlin since the Sigerson, not sure what's the story with him. I've heard Diarmuid O’Connor and Paddy Durcan are doubts as well due to hamstring trouble, in fact I saw somewhere a couple of days ago claims Mayo could be without 7 or 8 including long term absentee Cillian. How much any of that is true is any ones guess I suppose. No word seeps out from the camp in Mayo. A lot of rumours that 99% of the time are false. I don't think even Horans mrs gets told. Eoghan McLoughlin was supposed to be out for the league after getting injured in the Sigerson but played 2 weeks later but hasn't featured since. Rumours that Cillian could have 20mins on Sunday.
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Post by thehermit on Mar 31, 2022 19:10:47 GMT
Cillian is out a long long time now, he'd want to appear for them soon or you begin to think he never will appear again.
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fitz
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Post by fitz on Mar 31, 2022 20:00:47 GMT
Paddy Durcan is a cracking half back, player
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MeathExile
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Post by MeathExile on Mar 31, 2022 21:25:37 GMT
Those odds would make Kerry strong favourites. By my calculations, it translates into an approx. 59% chance of Kerry win, 10% chance of draw, 30% chance Mayo win. There is a missing percentage point due to rounding error. Someone who knows only a little about odds will say, are Mayo not a 33% chance? They are according to 2/1 odds, but that difference, between this 33% and 30%, is the bookies' cut. Without this cut, the way it works is 2/1 means that Mayo win once and not win twice... that is they win one out of three times... approx. 33%. Similarly 8/1 on the draw means a draw once, and not a draw eight times... that is a draw once in nine games approx. 11%. Kerry 8/15 means Kerry win 15 times and not win eight times... so they win 15/23 approx. 65% times. It means, roughly, that if you put down €109 of bets on this match: €65 on a Kerry win, €11 on the draw, and €33 on Mayo, you will get back about €100 if Kerry win, €99 on the draw, and €99 if Mayo win. So the bookies' cut is, in the long run, about 10% of all bets on the outcome of the match. Thank you for explaining that Annascual, as you can tell something like Cheltenham would pass me by.
Beware the man of many vices, though not as much as the man with none - I find that as good a creed as any
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MeathExile
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I wonder, is there a goal in this game??
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Post by MeathExile on Mar 31, 2022 21:31:29 GMT
Thanks Annascaul - I’m from the same stable as TheHermit….no pun intended. I have done many laps of Fairyhouse on my jogs but very rarely for the races. Odds and betting not for me. Good explanation.
If Mayo are missing that many then we should win by a few lengths….
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2022 21:36:50 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours.
Any1 expect any surprises?
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 21:37:10 GMT
Thanks Annascaul - I’m from the same stable as TheHermit….no pun intended. I have done many laps of Fairyhouse on my jogs but very rarely for the races. Odds and betting not for me. Good explanation. If Mayo are missing that many then we should win by a few lengths…. I am more into the probability than the betting. I don't think I have put down more than a handful of bets in the last 15 years.
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Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 31, 2022 21:44:20 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours. Any1 expect any surprises? Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong.
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fitz
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Post by fitz on Mar 31, 2022 21:45:46 GMT
Bookies and poverty, never seen
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Post by Whosinmidfield on Mar 31, 2022 21:56:52 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours. Any1 expect any surprises? Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong. I listened to that too and I didn’t take it as a joke but I’d be slow enough believing him. He also said something about someone coming out of retirement if I picked him up right?
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Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 31, 2022 22:01:55 GMT
Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong. I listened to that too and I didn’t take it as a joke but I’d be slow enough believing him. He also said something about someone coming out of retirement if I picked him up right? He did and for some reason my mind went to Peter Crowley.
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Post by Whosinmidfield on Mar 31, 2022 22:08:14 GMT
I listened to that too and I didn’t take it as a joke but I’d be slow enough believing him. He also said something about someone coming out of retirement if I picked him up right? He did and for some reason my mind went to Peter Crowley. Mine actually went to Tommy Walsh but I don’t see either as a good idea. Walsh might make a bit more sense as a plan b while I don’t see Crowley near any place in the backs. I still don’t think it will or should happen though, why now and not a few weeks back when whoever it is could have got league minutes? Also the positional change, I can’t think of any possibility for that. We’ve had a very successful league campaign, all this talk would suggest we’re really struggling.
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Post by royalkerryfan on Mar 31, 2022 22:14:32 GMT
He did and for some reason my mind went to Peter Crowley. Mine actually went to Tommy Walsh but I don’t see either as a good idea. Walsh might make a bit more sense as a plan b while I don’t see Crowley near any place in the backs. I still don’t think it will or should happen though, why now and not a few weeks back when whoever it is could have got league minutes? Also the positional change, I can’t think of any possibility for that. We’ve had a very successful league campaign, all this talk would suggest we’re really struggling. I completely agree, a bit strange alright.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Mar 31, 2022 22:56:32 GMT
I was going to allude to Jack O'Connor and Mike McCarthy about a week back... but I think I decided there was nobody out there that might come in.
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Post by Attacking Wing Back on Apr 1, 2022 0:22:46 GMT
I think Tim Moynihan was most likely hopping ball. But, if Jack is going to being anyone out of retirement it would most likely be in some one that can win ball in midfield. Really only Tommy Walsh can offer you that.
Unless it's Jack Sherwood. Either way I don't think it will happen. I think Kerry really need to win ln Sunday. It's a great chance to road test our new defensive system in Croke Park and prove to the players themselves what they are doing is working.
Strange as it is. I am more worried about our forwards. We seem totally reliant on DC. Granted Brosnan has come to the fore but, ideally we would have a few point coming from the half forward line from play as well outside of Seanie. Especially when we are only playing 2 sharpshooters inside
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2022 1:38:09 GMT
I take it that the naming of both teams will be released tomorrow evening, it'll give us something to chaw over for a few hours. Any1 expect any surprises? Would like to See O'Donoghue back, He needs experience in Croke Park. I was listening to the Ah Ref Podcast the Mayo podcast and Tim Moynihan was on the show and he was alluding to some big change in the team.. now it might have been just a joke or I took him up wrong. Ya it would be great to get another look at O'Donaghue for sure, he's gritty and has a bit of Devil in him, a bit like Gavin Crowley when he first arrived on the scene. That's interesting news by timmy, it'll make tomorrows team announcement all the more exciting eh! Feck I need to get a life 🤪
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Apr 1, 2022 6:11:00 GMT
I have it on very good authority that the man coming onto the side is one Mark O'Connor. He had a massive bust up with the leadership group in Geelong.
He flew out last week and has been with family in Dingle. He is after ripping up his contract with Geelong by all accounts and is committing to Kerry for the foreseeable.
Great news for all Kerry fans this morning.
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Post by royalkerryfan on Apr 1, 2022 6:59:49 GMT
I have it on very good authority that the man coming onto the side is one Mark O'Connor. He had a massive bust up with the leadership group in Geelong. He flew out last week and has been with family in Dingle. He is after ripping up his contract with Geelong by all accounts and is committing to Kerry for the foreseeable. Great news for all Kerry fans this morning. That's an awful joke on a Friday!
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Post by Mickmack on Apr 1, 2022 7:13:44 GMT
I have it on very good authority that the man coming onto the side is one Mark O'Connor. He had a massive bust up with the leadership group in Geelong. He flew out last week and has been with family in Dingle. He is after ripping up his contract with Geelong by all accounts and is committing to Kerry for the foreseeable. Great news for all Kerry fans this morning. That's an awful joke on a Friday! Especially when its 1st of April
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Post by royalkerryfan on Apr 1, 2022 7:35:13 GMT
That's an awful joke on a Friday! Especially when its 1st of April 🤣🤣
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horsebox77
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Post by horsebox77 on Apr 1, 2022 9:07:16 GMT
I'd take Timmy's quote with a pinch of salt.
Truth be told, I don't think there is any club player out there or recently retired player that could add any bit of substance to Kerry at this juncture.
I genuinely think the best 40 odd players available are in with the county side or within the county panel. Look at the recently retired, Tommy, Sherwood, Kelly, O'Donoghue, Lynn, Crowley, Enright, Buckley, Griffin. None of the above would realistically make an impact, you could make a case for Tommy to win primary ball with ten or fifteen to go, but even that is a push.
Who opted out last year for lack of game time, there was two or three, one was James, the other was Liam Kearney, who was the third?
Regardless, inch of salt, unless, Timmy is alluding to a returning Seanie on the forty and the wires got crossed.
As for the Mark O'Connor, April Foots Joke, that is more wishful thinking than a joke unfortunately, but sure we can dream.
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Post by glengael on Apr 1, 2022 10:52:33 GMT
Kerry by one.
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Post by buck02 on Apr 1, 2022 11:35:34 GMT
I realise that it is off topic but I listened to an interview with Marc O Connor recently. He is in the final year of his contract with Geelong. He was injured a good bit last season and the tendenitis of the knee issues he suffered from in his minor days have come back again. So it's possible he won't be offered another contract with them.
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Post by Annascaultilidie on Apr 1, 2022 11:54:35 GMT
I realise that it is off topic but I listened to an interview with Marc O Connor recently. He is in the final year of his contract with Geelong. He was injured a good bit last season and the tendenitis of the knee issues he suffered from in his minor days have come back again. So it's possible he won't be offered another contract with them. I also heard an interview and I got the impression that he said the knee will sort in time. What I heard loud and clear was that without the professional setup in Australia, he felt his knees might not have lasted the course (in football).
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Joxer
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Post by Joxer on Apr 1, 2022 12:43:52 GMT
I realise that it is off topic but I listened to an interview with Marc O Connor recently. He is in the final year of his contract with Geelong. He was injured a good bit last season and the tendenitis of the knee issues he suffered from in his minor days have come back again. So it's possible he won't be offered another contract with them. I listened to the same interview. I left it thinking there might be grounds for some optimism that while we won't see him in a KY jersey this year, the possibility exists that we could see him before too long more. I was looking for that optimism though so maybe not the most reliable....
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dano
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Post by dano on Apr 1, 2022 13:58:01 GMT
I watched that 2019 League final there. Thanks MM for posting.I too felt, at the time. that we had thrown it away but it's plain to see that they were better that day. It was a good game of football though and with a bit of luck Kerry could have robbed it. I think we are better today than then and Mayo aren't. Roll on Sunday.
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Post by Mickmack on Apr 1, 2022 14:29:19 GMT
I watched that 2019 League final there. Thanks MM for posting.I too felt, at the time. that we had thrown it away but it's plain to see that they were better that day. It was a good game of football though and with a bit of luck Kerry could have robbed it. I think we are better today than then and Mayo aren't. Roll on Sunday. And a few weeks after that Roscommon dumped Mayo of the Connacht championship. Its why i have a feeling that Mayo will just go through the motions on Sunday. I hope i am wrong and that they make every effort to win it.
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