What Lies Beneath - Success Rates for Various Shot Types

[dontfoul]

Hey

Apologies for starting a new thread - didn't know where else to plonk this. I know some people are bored by stats, and resent breaking such a fluid game down into binary actions, but others on here seemed to like the kickout piece.

I have combined all the shooting data I have up to the end of the 2013 Championship here

If anyone has any thoughts on it, or if there is another way of looking at it that they would like to see, I'd love to hear them

[Annascaultilidie]

...until it is approved dontfoul.wordpress.com/2014/06/25/what-lies-beneath-success-rates-for-various-shot-types/

[givehimaball]

Some seriously interesting stuff in there Dont Foul. Have to say I'm impressed by the staggering amount of work that must have gone into compiling these numbers.

The stats on deadballs and frees are very interesting as I think they really add to my theory that people overstate the importance of a free-taker in winning matches.

I'm not saying that a great free-taker is unimportant, I'm saying that the number of games a great free-taker will win his team versus an average free-taker is very very small.

Also the bit on shots under pressure was very interesting - would it be possible to turn this around and work back from the amount conceded by a team to rank their defence and how good the were at putting forwards under pressure.

Have to say I was surprised at the small number of shots outside the 45

Only 2% of all shots – 77 shots in 86 games – in the three years occurred outside the 45.

I would have thought that this is a very low number from outside the 45, especially when you compare the success rate between outside the 45 and inside the 45. It looks like the small sample size might really affect trying to draw conclusions from this sector- however if a side has someone who can kick from outside the 45 with a degree of regularity it could be a very useful addition especially if you come up against a top defensive outfit.

The success of the shooting from central areas leads me to think that there could possibly be a benefit to teams abandoning the traditional setup of teams in the formation of 1-3-3-2-3-3.

I wonder if splitting out the figures by the various divisions would add any insights? Say even Division 1 versus Division 4 to compare the standards and just how wide the gap is and where exactly it is i.e. what areas do Division 4 teams need to improve to compete with teams from higher Divisions.

Thanks for all the work ; really adds a new level of insight to the game.